There’s a saying in sports regarding head coaches: “Never follow a legend.” Don’t tell Hubert Davis about that one because he clearly doesn’t subscribe to it, even if he’d heard it before. Davis shocked the NCAA world in his first year under the helm in the 2021-22 season, leading the 8th-seeded Tar Heels to the NCAA Finals. However, this is where the wheels start to come off the bus. The Tar Heels blew a 15-point halftime lead and succumbed to the Jayhawks. The following year was what many would consider to be a “Super Bowl Hangover.” The Tar Heels struggled despite retaining four starters, including the catalysts of their 2022 run, RJ Davis, Caleb Love, and Armando Bacot. Having a team return four starters coming off of a near NCAA championship, only to miss the tournament the following season, is nearly unheard of. Yet, the Tar Heels accomplished that humiliating feat. In 2024, Davis regrouped. Caleb Love left for greener pastures in Arizona, and Hubert found a way to bring in some wings to supplement RJ Davis. The Heels didn’t dominate the field last year, but returning to the Sweet 16 should plant some seeds of hope amongst Chapel Hill faithful for a return to the glory days.
RJ Davis is back, ladies and gentlemen. The only current contributor from the 2021-22 squad will again be the guy. Davis will likely see his name pop up in Naismith conversations, especially if he can continue to propel the Heels toward a #1 seed in March. He’s been their go-to guy for three years now, and at this point, we’ve come to know what to expect from him regarding dynamic shotmaking. Junior Seth Trimble and sophomore Elliot Cadeau also returned to assist Davis with backcourt duties. Trimble and Cadeau are dynamic in different ways. Trimble’s defensive ability, combined with outstanding balance and athleticism, make him a potential breakout candidate this upcoming season.
Cadeau is a high-level playmaker whose vision allows him to open up defenses and attack the rim at will. However, they both have issues behind the arc. Trimble shot the ball well last year but did so on such low volume, shooting less than 1 three per game. We need to see him shoot it more, especially off the catch. As for Cadeau, he needs to shoot it significantly better. 18% from beyond the arc is unacceptable as a high-level Division 1 player. Now, on their own, these three guards are an intriguing trio. However, UNC further solidified things by adding a couple of exciting 5-star recruits to the mix: Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. Jackson brings a more complete combo guard scoring package to the Heels. He can get things done at multiple levels and create for others. While I personally believe Powell’s offensive game is a bit more complete than consensus, the main excitement surrounding his game is his 2-way playability and ability to be an effective off-ball presence.
Moving up to the frontcourt, the Heels went portaling to deepen the roster. They brought back Jalen Washington and Jae-lyn Withers, a pair of forwards who were at least part of the rotation despite only playing spot minutes. They went out and got Cade Tyson from Belmont, Hunter Tyson’s younger brother, who was an elite sniper last season and should be an easy plug-and-play at either the three or the four spots alongside any combination of guards Davis decides to trot out. They also added a pair of 6’8 forwards in Ty Claude and Ven-Allen Lubin from Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. Claude and Lubin should help Withers and Washington battle things out on the glass and shore up the frontcourt rotation with experience.
I know I was a bit brief about this UNC frontcourt, but the Tar Heels’ potency comes from the guards. For things to go right this year, some combination of the incoming 5-stars and returners must lighten the scoring burden for RJ Davis. Davis took 16 shots per game last season, and although that is undoubtedly a recipe for bringing them to March, they will need the other guys to step up if they want another shot at the title. In preseason so far, Trimble and Cadeau have looked capable of taking the necessary leaps, but whether that trend will continue into the season remains to be seen. The other key for the Tar Heels comes on the glass. Armando Bacot was a rebound eater, which helped offset the inconsistent nature of RJ’s scoring spurts and provided them with extra possessions. Without that singular force, the Heels are going to need multiple guys crashing the glass on both ends of the floor. Washington looks like he may be the leading presence on that front, but a combination of Claude, Lubin, and Withers will also need to be productive rebounders for the Heels to succeed. If things go poorly for Rubert Davis, I don’t think we’ll have a 2022-23 situation on our hands. This team will undoubtedly make the tournament and compete with Duke for the ACC crown. However, if RJ doesn’t get the help he needs, we may see this team go down earlier than expected.