Here’s where our analysts have the Bears

I’m sure you’ve all heard of the age-old game of Three-Card Monte. The concept is simple: You’re shown three cards, one of which is your “target card,” and you need to correctly identify where the card is after some shuffling. I bring this up to introduce Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears, who run what I like to call Three GUARD Monte. For years, we’ve seen two very distinct themes from Scott Drew. He loves his experienced 2-way guards, and he will trot three guards out there with a forward/wing and a big man. Drew had success initially running Marquis Teague, Jared Butler, and Davion Mitchell in 2019, where they went 26-4 before the COVID-19 interruption. The following year? They ran it back, going 28-2 and torching the field in March on their way to the program’s first-ever national title. Since the National Title, Drew has added a slight twist to the past 3 seasons. Rather than running three upperclassmen out there, Drew has opted to go with two upperclassmen and a 5-star recruit, adding a layer of unpredictability to his 3 Guard Monte.

Let’s talk about the roster. The Bears did have a few key losses during the offseason, with all of their starters other than Jayden Nunn departing for the NBA. However, they retained 6th man Langston Love, who should immediately step into a starting role and look to progress his draft stock after a solid sophomore season. Drew was also shrewd in the portal, bringing in veteran guard Jeremy Roach over from Duke to keep the backcourt fully stocked. This is where things start to get interesting. Remember how I mentioned that theme of the Bears bringing in a 5-star recruit for the backcourt? Well, this year, they might have their best one yet in VJ Edgecombe. Edgecombe is a freak of nature. His athleticism is off the charts. He’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and can get to his spots almost at will. This gives Drew options. He can go for the experience, opting for Nunn, Love, and Roach. However, knowing his tendency to give these high-caliber freshmen the keys, it’s likely that VJ will take up one of those starting spots. One is assuredly going to Nunn, but it’s likely going to be a battle between Roach and Love for that last starting spot going into the season.

Moving up to the frontcourt, Norchad Omier is another excellent addition to the Bears. He’s a super dynamic small-ball five who can press the pace when Drew decides to up the tempo and pace teams out of the game. Jaden Celestine and Yanis Ndjonga are another pair of transfer wings who can provide some depth, with Celestine being the more likely of the 2 to receive minutes. There’s a potential battle for the five spot to consider as well. Returning Junior Josh Ojianwuna was upstaged last year by current New Orleans Pelicans Center Yves Missi. He’ll certainly be expected to start over incoming Croatian freshman Marino Dubravcic. However, if the Bears decide to go smaller, it’s more likely that we see incoming 5-star recruit Jason Asemota assume the four spot, sliding Omier down to the 5.

As always, Scott Drew’s Bears are going to be in the mix when we get to March. They’ve got a bevy of guard talent, a great blend of energy and experience, and the top-end talent to win games. The Big 12 got even more challenging this season with the new additions from the Pac-12, but 3 Guard Monte has got the job done for the Bears for almost half a decade at this point, and I expect that to continue once again as we head into the 2024 season. 

Since we’re entering the top 10, I want to discuss the Bears’ top-end and low-end performance. What needs to go right for them to win a national championship? What we know is that the Bears guards are always going to perform. Scott Drew has a full rotation and has amassed plenty of talent, which will allow him to shuffle his guards in any arrangement he pleases to swing backcourt matchups in the Bears’ favor. The X factor in all this is Langston Love. He’s flashed plenty of potential in the last couple of seasons, especially as a scorer, but someone’s going to need to make up for RayJ Dennis’ playmaking, and if Love can take that leap, the Bears go from threatening to formidable. The frontcourt depth is also a bit of a concern for the Bears. Omier is the only proven commodity of the variety of forwards and centers, with Ojianuwa being somewhat effective in limited minutes, as well as a pair of freshmen. The Bears are going to need an Ojianuwa leap to be able to sustain themselves against some of the size up front in the Big 12. If things go wrong for the Bears, they should still be able to make a decent run in March. The system that Drew runs along with the talent should net them a 4th or 5th seed at worst, but they’re likely Sweet 16 or Round of 32 exits rather than championship contenders without leaps from Love and Ojianuwa.