With the college basketball season a little over three months away, it’s time to start familiarizing yourself with all the new faces in new places. Here are the 100 storylines to know for this upcoming college basketball season:

100 Storylines

ACC:

1: ACC is soooooo back

Coming off a year where the conference had just four teams make the NCAA tournament (and UNC probably shouldn’t have made it last year), the ACC is primed for a bounce-back season. After the retirements of legendary coaches such as Coach K, Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim, Tony Bennett, and the downfall of Louisville basketball after letting go of Rick Pitino, the conference desperately needed fresh faces on the sidelines. With coaches such as John Scheyer, Ryan Odom, Pat Kelsey, and Will Wade in the conference, the ACC (and its recruitment) is slowly improving. Between the usual suspects such as Duke, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, and, in addition to NC State, SMU, and Miami, the expectation going into this season should be a minimum of six bids into the NCAA tournament.

2: Ryan Odom’s Virginia Cavaliers

A year after going 15-17 and 8-12 in ACC play after Tony Bennett announced his retirement, Virginia ironically brought in Ryan Odom. It’s ironic because Odom was the coach for the UMBC team that upset #1 overall seed Virginia in 2018, the first-ever 16 seed to beat a 1 seed in NCAA tournament history. While Virginia was known for their defensive identity all those years under Bennett, this team should be heavily offensive-centric. Starting point guard, Dallin Hall (BYU), will be the table setter for all the elite shooting Odom surrounded him with. Malik Thomas (San Fran) and Jacari White (North Dakota State) were both very productive last season and both shot 39.8% and 39.4% from three, respectively.

Meanwhile, Virginia rounds out the starting five with Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grunloh. De Ridder is 22 years old and played in the Spanish ACB league, while Grunloh is a German prospect. Both players should help contribute to an elite offense.

3. Will Wade’s NC State Wolfpack

A year after a Final Four run, Kevin Keatts got the axe at NC State after missing the 15-team ACC tournament last year. Even so, during the Wolfpack’s 2024 Final Four run, NC State had a losing record in conference play and won the conference tournament as the 10th seed in the ACC. It was time for a change. And Wade is about as drastic a change as one can get. Wade completely overhauled this Wolf Pack roster after two elite years recruiting in the Southland at McNeese State. Wade brought two of his McNeese players with him: Alyn Breed and Qadir Copeland. He also added Tre Hollomon (Michigan State), Ven-Allen Lubin (UNC), and Terrance Arceneux (Houston). After assembling this roster, Wade got a late commitment in the portal and added the cherry on top of his recruiting class by adding Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams. Wade improves the ACC coaching carousel that has been pretty disastrous over the last four years.

4. Jai Lucas’ Miami Hurricanes and their terrible non-conference schedule

Jai Lucas, an elite recruiter and assistant coach for Duke the past four years, has the task of replacing Jim Larranga, who took over the Miami job in 2011. Larranga took the U to the Final Four in 2023. Lucas was even able to get a 4-star freshman, Shelton Henderson, to flip his commitment from Duke to Miami. While Miami is not nearly as talented as Ryan Odom’s Virginia or even Will Wade’s NC State team, this is a Miami team that lost 24 of its last 31 games and won just three of its last 17 games. While that should temper some expectations, Lucas needs to establish himself as one of the up-and-coming coaching hires in this cycle.

5. Louisville’s BACK

Remember the Kenny Payne era? That feels like forever ago. Before hiring Pat Kelsey, Louisville was 25-71 over the three previous years. However, after making their first NCAA Tournament since 2019, Louisville seems to be all the way back. Not only are J’Vonne Hadley and Kasean Pryor coming back, but Louisville added 5-star freshman, Mikel Brown, in addition to Sananda Fru, a highly productive German prospect.

Additionally, they added seniors Ryan Conwell (Xavier), Isaac McKneely (Virginia), as well as sophomore Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State). Redshirt senior Aly Khalifa is also coming back after transferring from BYU. Outside of Duke (below), Louisville should be the cream of the crop in the ACC.

6. Duke Blue Devils: Replacing Cooper Flagg

Replacing National Player of the Year and #1 pick in the NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg, will be no easy feat. But Jon Scheyer has proven he’s an elite-level recruiter. In comes the Boozer twins, Cameron Boozer (#3) and Cayden (#24), who are two of the best incoming freshmen in the nation. Cameron, however, will have the responsibility of replacing Flagg. Not only is Boozer a candidate to be the #1 pick in the 2026 draft, but he’ll also be one of Duke’s starting forwards, similar to Flagg last season. Outside of Cameron Boozer, however, this roster is pretty underwhelming. Aside from the Boozer twins, there are freshmen Nik Khamenia (#14) and Dame Sarr (5-star prospect), as well as some returners such as Isaiah Evans, Caleb Foster, Maliq Brown, and Patrick Ngongba. Needless to say, Scheyer is going to need a couple of those guys to step up in order to have championship expectations.

7. North Carolina’s underwhelming offseason

On the surface, it appears North Carolina’s roster is a little underwhelming in terms of past production. The Tar Heels are expecting to “take a few bites at the apple” with the high upside potential of their transfer class. UNC’s primary returner, Seth Trimble, is expected to take a leap and be the offensive focal point. Aside from him, there are transfers Henri Veesaar (Arizona), Jarin Stevenson (Alabama), Kyan Evans (Colorado State), and Jonathan Powell (West Virginia). Aside from them, there’s 22-year-old Montenegrin Luka Bogavac and five-star freshman, Caleb Wilson. After losing RJ Davis, UNC doesn’t quite have “the guy” on the roster this year. And while the roster looks underwhelming for a typical Tar Heels roster, they have enough “bites at the apple” to make it work.

Big 12:

8. The Big 12 is no longer Kansas’s to lose

I’m old enough to remember Kansas’s 14-year reign from 2005 to 2018 of winning the Big 12 regular season title. They also won the Big 12 in 2020, 2022, and 2023. However, Kansas is coming off its worst two years since 1989. Parlay that with a very underwhelming transfer class, and the Jayhawks are officially in trouble. To make matters worse, Houston has won the Big 12 both years since joining the league. Yes, Kansas has Darryn Peterson, the current favorite to go #1 in the 2026 NBA Draft. And they have Flory Bigunga back after returning from the transfer portal. Outside of that, it looks pretty bleak. To round out the starting five, the Jayhawks add Tre White (Illinois), Jayden Dawson (Loyola Chicago), and Melvin Council (St. Bonaventure). There’s precedent for teams built around top freshman prospects missing the tournament (see Markelle Fultz at Washington, Ben Simmons at LSU, Rutgers last season), and there’s some concern that this Peterson-led Kansas team could be this year. Some may say this is a Bill Self-led team and nothing else matters, but between the underwhelming roster and Kansas’s lack of success the last few seasons, there should be cause for concern in Lawrence.

9. Houston Cougars

After losing in the national championship, Houston may come into the season as the preseason-ranked #1 team. The Cougars are bringing back three starters, including the starting backcourt of Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, along with potential National Defensive Player of the Year, JoJo Tugler. Meanwhile, Kelvin Sampson’s team finds themselves in rare territory, as they bring in three top 25 recruits as his freshman class. The name to know of these three is Chris Cenac, a five-star recruit. After winning the Big 12 regular season in both years in the league, Sampson has accomplished everything except a national championship. This upcoming year, he has as good a shot as any.

10. BYU, Kevin Young is running an NBA program in college basketball

Not only was Kevin Young the highest-paid assistant in the NBA, but he was likely going to be the head coach of the Brooklyn Nets before taking the BYU job. But with their resources of NIL and their ascension in the Big 12, who can really blame him? And Young is running his program like an NBA team. Young has Baylor transfer Robert Wright, last year’s leading scorer Richie Saunders, and #1 ranked freshman, AJ Dybansta, leading the way. There’s also a big man, Keba Keita. Most were skeptical when BYU was leaving the WCC for the Big 12, but their resources and success since joining the league have shown that they belong.

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders are building a powerhouse.

Texas Tech has newfound oil money, as billionaire Cody Campbell leads the Red Raiders NIL collective. While Texas Tech wasn’t able to retain Darrion Williams, they gave JT Toppin four million reasons to forego the NBA Draft and return to Lubbock for another season. Sophomore point guard Christian Anderson showed his potential during the FIBA U19s for Germany. Grant McCasland’s program has also done an excellent job of replacing Williams. The Red Raiders bring Tyeree Bryan (Santa Clara), LeJuan Watts (Washington State), and Luke Bamgboye (VCU) to likely round out the starting five. Bryan and Watts shot 42.9% and 42.2% collectively from three last season. There’s also Donovan Atwell (UNC Greensboro), who shot 39.8% from 3. While McCasland’s defenses are always elite, there’s plenty to be excited about with this Red Raiders offense.

Big Ten:

12. Is this the year the Big Ten breaks its 25-year championship drought?

Yes, it’s really been 25 years since Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans cut down the nets. While Zach Edey’s Purdue team made it to the national championship in 2024, the Boilermakers probably have the best chance at breaking this streak. Purdue will be a top two team in the preseason poll (along with Houston), but they aren’t alone. The Big Ten vastly improved this offseason, as Michigan, UCLA, and Ohio State, among others, are legitimate threats. And you can never count out Michigan State. Not only does Purdue have as good a shot as any, but the Big Ten has plenty of teams I expect to emerge as title threats this season.

13. Purdue Boilermakers

I’d be remised if I failed to mention Purdue as one of the top storylines in college basketball this upcoming season. As previously stated, Purdue is going to be up there with Houston as the favorites to cut down the nets. Nobody is as good at retention as Matt Painter, as Purdue returns 69.5% of their roster from last year, which includes Braden Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn. They also add South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff and retain Fletcher Loyer, who was second on the team in minutes last year. It’s reasonable to believe that Smith and Kaufmann-Renn can both make an All-American team this season. Plus, Purdue brings back Daniel Jacobsen, who only played in two games last season, and added Israeli Omer Mayer, who played incredibly well in FIBA U19s and U20s.

14. Michigan Wolverines

In Dusty May’s second season on the sidelines for the Wolverines, Michigan has a three-headed big man monster with Yaxel Lendeborg (UAB), Morez Johnson (Illinois), and Aday Mara (UCLA). Combine that with incumbents Roddy Gayle and Nimari Burnett, along with UNC transfer Elliot Cadeau, and Michigan should be even better than they were last season. Lendeborg should be an All-American quality player, and Michigan should ultimately be Purdue’s biggest threat, despite the influx of talent down this entire conference.

15. UCLA Bruins

If not Michigan, then it’s definitely UCLA as the biggest threat to Purdue. The Bruins are returning Eric Dailey Jr., Tyler Bilodeau, and Skyy Clark while adding Donovan Dent (New Mexico) and Jamar Brown (Kansas City). This allows UCLA’s entire starting five to play a five-out system, with all players shooting 38% or better from three. While Cronin’s tenure in Westwood has been underwhelming, this is the best team he has assembled, thanks to the combination of incoming talent and continuity.

16. The Big Ten Coaching Upgrades

The coaching improvement from most of the teams in the Big Ten hasn’t been discussed enough. Last offseason, USC went from Andy Enfield to Eric Musselman, Washington went from Mike Hopkins to Danny Sprinkle, and Michigan went from Juwan Howard to Dusty May. Meanwhile, this offseason, the conference added Darian DeVries (Indiana), Ben McCollum (Iowa), Niko Medved (Minnesota), and Buzz Williams (Maryland). And that’s before factoring in Matt Painter, Tom Izzo, Brad Underwood, Mick Cronin, etc. Suddenly, the Big Ten has some of the best X’s and O’s guys in the business.

17. Iowa hired Ben McCollum

Two years ago, Ben McCollum was coming off a 29-5 at Northwest Missouri State and preparing to win his fifth Division II national championship. Then Drake came calling. After going 395-91 (.813 winning percentage) and winning four national championships in a six-year span (he may have won a fifth if the tournament was not cancelled in 2020), McCollum made the jump to Division I coaching with Drake. The Bulldogs accumulated a 31-4 record with four transfers from McCollum’s Northwest Missouri State team, who also made the leap to D1. Now, McCollum parlayed that success into a Big Ten job, as he now takes over for Fran McCaffery at Iowa. This time, McCollum brings five of his Drake players with him, including potential All-American Bennett Stirtz. In addition, McCollum added Brendan Hausen (Kansas State) and former Horizon League Player of the Year, Alvaro Folguieras (Robert Morris). Despite McCollum’s rapid ascension to the Big Ten, he is considered one of the best X’s and O’s guys in the country, and his team is set up for success in a high-major conference.

18. Darian DeVries heads to Indiana

DeVries, who McCollum replaced at Drake, goes from Drake to West Virginia to Indiana in a 3 year span. In DeVries’ final four seasons at Drake, he accumulated a 106-31 record and went to three NCAA tournaments. He was the easy choice for West Virginia when the Mountaineers were searching for a new coaching hire. However, after just one season and an NCAA tournament snub, DeVries fled to Indiana and brought his son, Tucker, with him. Tucker played in just 8 games for the Mountaineers last season and has averaged 17.7 points for his entire career. Joining DeVries are Lamar Wilkerson (Sam Houston State), Tayton Conway (Troy), and Reed Bailey (Davidson). While it remains to be seen how many of those complementary pieces are high major players, they will be one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. While DeVries caught some flak for the way he left West Virginia, nobody can doubt his coaching acumen.

19. Buzz Williams to Maryland!

Buzz Williams got a late start on the transfer portal, as he didn’t take over the Maryland job until April 1st. Williams brings Pharrel Payne and Solomon Washington with him from Texas A&M, adds a four-star freshman in Darius Adams, and adds a trio of high-level transfers with Elijah Saunders (Virginia), Myles Rice (Indiana), and Isaiah Watts (Washington State). While this Maryland team may need a year to get their feet wet, they’re going to be physical and they’re going to crash the boards. That’ll be their identity. But that should be expected from a Buzz Williams team, as his A&M teams were top five in the country in OR% in KenPom over the past three seasons. While Buzz was able to recruit across the state of Texas while at A&M, the DMV area gives him a whole new territory to recruit in.

20. Brad Underwood and Illinois’ European ties and allies

Last season, Underwood and his staff made a splash by signing highly-touted Lithuanian prospect, Kasparas Jakucionis. Jakucionis went on to become a first-round pick in the NBA Draft. This year, Illinois is doubling down on that philosophy. The Illini have added both Mihajlo Petrovic and David Mirkovic, two Serbian prospects who have played in the ABA. In addition, Illinois has the Ivisic brothers, Tomislav and Zvonomir (previously Arkansas and Kentucky), and they secured a commitment from Andrej Stojakovic (Cal) in the portal. Both Ivisic brothers will allow the Illini to space the floor, which should help Kylan Boswell and Ty Rodgers (if he’s healthy). Underwood’s teams are always competitive, and while there should be some questions, the offense should be borderline elite.

21. The Best of the Rest & the return of Rienk Mast

There are so many teams in this conference that deserve a storyline. Outside of the teams previously mentioned, there’s Michigan State, Ohio State, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, USC, among others that deserve a shout. While there are plenty of players who deserve shout-outs in this category, none are more important than Rienk Mast to Nebraska. The last time we saw Mast was in 2024, as he missed the entire 2024-25 season. After transferring from Bradley, Mast averaged 12.3 points and 7.5 rebounds in his sole year at Nebraska. And the Cornhuskers looked the part of an NCAA tournament team during the non-conference portion of last season before they lost six straight games and five of their final 17 games. The Cornhuskers then went on to win the College Basketball Crown in Vegas.

SEC

22. Can Florida defend their title?

While last season’s Florida team was premised on their backcourt (Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard all got drafted), this year’s team’s strength will be their frontcourt. The Gators are returning Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Rueben Chinyelu from last year’s team. They also add transfer guards Xaivian Lee (Princeton) and Boogie Fland (Arkansas) in addition to four-star freshman CJ Ingram. This team should be favored to win the SEC and will likely be a championship contender once again. Last year’s team was second offensively and sixth defensively, per KenPom, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be close to replicating those numbers.

23. What Mark Pope is Building at Kentucky

As good as the Wildcats were last year, nobody was going to confuse last year’s Kentucky roster as championship contenders. Now that Mark Pope is entering year two and has gotten his feet wet, he hit the ground running on the recruiting trail this offseason. Not only did Otega Oweh take a massive payday to forego the NBA Draft and return to Big Blue Nation, but Pope added elite transfers in Jayden Quaintance (Arizona State) and Jaland Lowe (Pitt). Quaintance, a projected top ten pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, is coming off a torn ACL and will likely miss the first half of the year. In addition, Pope added Mouhamed Diabate (Alabama) and Denzel Aberdeen (Florida). Pope also added Kam Williams (Tulane) to play the Koby Brea role in this offense. Pope also added three 4-star prospects and has former top recruits like Brandon Garrison and Collin Chandler. This roster runs DEEP, and it’s once again conceivable that Kentucky is a national title threat.

24. Calipari’s Continuity

I’m personally pretty underwhelmed with this Razorback roster; however, Calipari is returning three of his top five in minutes from last year. I’m also not a huge fan of underwhelming teams that overachieved in March Madness to run it back (see 2022 UCLA). Despite Arkansas making the Sweet 16, they had a losing record in the SEC last year, and last year’s team was probably better than this year’s. DJ Wagner, Karter Knox, Trevon Brazile, and Billy Richmond are back. Additionally, Calipari adds two five stars with Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas. Big men Malique Ewin (Florida State) and Nick Pringle (South Carolina) round out the rest of the rotation. This roster looks shooting, is a little light on playmaking, and lacks star power. Knox is expected to take a major step forward, but I don’t believe much in the surrounding cast. Arkansas is one of the more overrated teams in the country going into next season.

25. Bucky Ball is SEC-bound!

If you haven’t watched Samford basketball the past two seasons, I feel bad for you. Bucky McMillan, formerly of Samford, brings a system he coined “Bucky Ball” to Texas A&M. McMillan’s teams play at a super fast tempo and press full court after made baskets. There’s no reason to think Bucky Ball won’t work in the SEC long-term. McMillan also got off to a late start recruiting, as he wasn’t hired by the Aggies until April 4th. Despite this, he identified players who fit his “Bucky Ball” system well. McMillan was able to turn over the entire A&M roster, adding players such as Rylan Griffin (Kansas and Alabama), Pops Isaacs (Creighton, Texas Tech), and Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana). Leading the way is floor general Jacari Lane (North Florida). The complimentary pieces are excellent as well. While coaching successfully in the SoCon is vastly different than doing so in the SEC, there’s reason to believe McMillan will thrive at A&M.

26. History will NOT repeat itself

Last year’s SEC may have been the best conference in the sport’s history. After coming off a record 14 bids, the expectation should be substantially lower. While Florida, Kentucky, and Arkansas were already mentioned (as well as A&M), there’s obviously Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee. These three teams have been some of the SEC cream of the crop the past four or so years. All three should be good once again, but all are likely to take a step back from where they were last year. In addition, I already alluded to Arkansas’ roster being underwhelming. Texas is underwhelming as well. In fact, aside from Kentucky, it’s my belief that none of the 14 teams that went dancing last year improved their roster from last season. Maybe I’m a little skeptical, and it was already going to be tough to replicate last year’s success, but this is an extremely safe prediction.

Big East

27. The Big East & the House Settlement

Given that the House Settlement began paying out teams this offseason and there was a cap of $20.5 million per team, the Big East was the conference some thought would benefit the most. This is because nearly all Big East teams do not have a football program they need to share their house settlement revenue with, which would allow them to allocate more resources into their basketball programs than other major conferences. And in the case of UConn, they clearly prioritize their basketball team over their football team. With this said, the Big East offseason ended up being underwhelming. While UConn and St. John’s are the conference’s elite, both Creighton and Marquette seem to have taken a potential step back.

Meanwhile, the Big East is better when Georgetown and Villanova are good, and neither of them seems to be a tournament team (maybe Georgetown could be, though). Even Xavier, who made the NCAA tournament last year, seems to have taken a major step back. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Big East being a 3 or 4-bid league this upcoming season.

28. UConn v. St. John’s is the rivalry we need

UConn has won six national championships in the last 26 years, which is at least double any other team. Coached by Dan Hurley, UConn could potentially win its third championship in four years. Meanwhile, Rick Pitino has gotten the St. John’s program back on track, as they won the Big East tournament and regular season last year. And it’s conceivable to say the Johnnies have gotten better. Hurley and Pitino are obviously two of the most animated coaches in the sport, and the hope is that these teams have the opportunity to play each other three times, if not four, this season. A third meeting between these teams means they’d meet each other in the Big East tournament, while a fourth would obviously mean they’d face off in March Madness. Due to the nature of these two teams and their championship aspirations, this is the rivalry that America deserves.

29. St. John’s improves their shooting woes

Last year, St. John’s identity was on the defensive end of the court, as they had the second-best defense, per KenPom. Meanwhile, offensively, St. John’s shot just 31% from three, which was 342nd in the nation. Pitino fixed those issues and those shooting woes. He added Ian Jackson (39.5% from 3), Oziyah Sellers (40.1%), Bryce Hopkins (40%), and Joson Sanon (36.9%), among others. While St. John’s defense will be elite as long as Zuby Ejiofor is anchoring it, the shooting upgrade was clearly a priority as well. My concern with this Johnny’s roster is the lack of a true point guard. Rick Pitino has mentioned Jackson being their primary playmaker, but that remains to be seen. Dylan Darling will be the backup point guard, but he likely cannot be relied on to play starter’s minutes after transferring from Idaho State.

30. Villanova hires Kevin Willard

After three unsuccessful seasons as Jay Wright’s successor, Villanova decided to pull the plug on the Kyle Neptune experiment. Villanova pegged Maryland’s Kevin Willard as the guy they were targeting early on, but Maryland went to the Sweet 16. As a result, Villanova had to wait the process out and watch other candidates get hired while doubling down on Willard. Their patience paid off. While Willard, a former Seton Hall coach who has Big East ties, may be the man for the job, this is still a very underwhelming roster. Considering that Villanova is looking for their first NCAA tournament berth since Jay Wright retired, this does not seem to be the roster that’ll accomplish that feat. Willard added two 4-star freshmen in Acaden Lewis and Chris Jeffrey (Jeffrey previously committed to play for Willard at Maryland), while also adding Devin Askew (Long Beach State), Bryce Lindsey (James Madison), and Duke Brennan (Grand Canyon). Additional portal additions include Temple’s Zion Stanford, who played high school ball down the street from Finn Pavilion, and Willard brought three bench players from Maryland with him. There’s also Matthew Hodge, a 2024 4-star who redshirted last year, as well as returner Tyler Perkins. While it may be progress from the Neptune era, this roster doesn’t have an All-American talent to lead the way like Eric Dixon.

31. Like Father, Like Son (Pitino Edition)

One of the more fun storylines this offseason is Rick Pitino’s son, Richard, taking the Xavier job, and both the father and son playing twice a year as members of the Big East. To me, this Richard Pitino Xavier roster is very underwhelming, which is ironic because of how well Richard recruited while at New Mexico. Both Texas Tech’s JT Toppin and UCLA’s Donovan Dent were recruited by and committed to Richard, and both should be All-Americans this year at their current schools. Meanwhile, Richard went all-in to form a mid-major all-star team this season. He’s added Tre Carroll (FAU), Gabriel Pozzato (Evansville), All Wright (Valparaiso), and Malik Messina-Moore (Montana), to name a few. Richard will need a lot to go Wright (see what I did there?) to make some noise in the Big East during his first season at the helm.

32. Shaka Smart’s Tragic Down Flaw

In 10th-grade English, we learned about “epics,” which feature a protagonist who typically has a tragic flaw. For example, Oedipus’ tragic downfall was “hubris,” which basically means overconfidence, maybe even a little cocky. In the Marquette epic, Shaka Smart is obviously the protagonist. However, Shaka’s tragic flaw may partially have to do with his hubris. Shaka is one of the best in the sport at retention, but after seeing Oso Ighodaro, Kam Jones, Tyler Kolek, and others go to the NBA, he hasn’t quite adapted. Marquette is the only power conference team that failed to bring in a single transfer. Smart does bring back nine rotation players from last season, but just two starters. Additionally, Smart brings in four 4-star freshmen, per 247sports. Maybe Shaka’s tragic down flaw hasn’t caught up to him yet, but without a bona fide star on this roster (maybe Chase Ross can make the leap), this year seems like the year it could happen.

Mountain West

33. San Diego’s State’s consistency

For those who remember, this time last year, I was not high on San Diego State’s roster whatsoever. But they’re one of those programs that will continue to prove you wrong if you bet against them. The Aggies are attempting to win 19 games or more for the 20th straight season. They’re also attempting to make the NCAA tournament for the 7th time in 9 years under Brian Dutcher. In one of those years when they didn’t make the tournament, they went 30-2 and were ranked as high as 4th in the AP poll. However, the NCAA tournament was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Aztecs are bringing back 60.4% of their minutes from last year, with Miles Byrd foregoing the NBA Draft and Magoon Gwath nearly leaving for Kentucky. Not only are both Byrd and Gwath back, but Reese Waters should be back after missing all last season. The Aztecs also added Latrell Davis (San Jose State) and Sean Newman Jr. (Louisiana Tech) through the portal. Expect the Aztecs to not only be the leaders in the clubhouse in the Mountain West, but to be a legitimate force come March.

34. Grand Canyon joins MWC

While in the WAC, the Lopes have won 23 games or more in four straight years and made the NCAA tournament in four out of five seasons under Bryce Drew. This jump to the MWC presents new challenges, however. Obviously, the level of competition in the Mountain West Conference is much stiffer than in the WAC, but Drew’s teams are typically well equipped to compete with high-major programs. In 2024, Grand Canyon upset the #5 seed Saint Mary’s in the first Round of the NCAA tournament. While Drew had to turn over most of last year’s roster, the Lopes brought in a terrific transfer class that could even get them an at-large bid with their much-improved schedule. Drew brought in Lou Henson Award winner, Brian Moore Jr. (Norfolk State), in addition to Nana Owusu-Anana (Brown) and Jaden Henley (UNLV).

Additionally, Dusty Stromer (Gonzaga) and Makaih Williams round out the starting five. Drew is a coach likely ready to make the jump to a higher major program (more on that later), and his ability to turn Grand Canyon into a perennial NCAA tournament team speaks volumes. And don’t be surprised if the success continues in the Mountain West.

35. Utah State’s success and their coaching tree

Friend of the One & Done Podcast, Coach Jerrod Calhoun was the fourth Utah State coaching hire in four years. And that’s no fault of the Aggies. In fact, Utah State is so good at hiring coaches that they keep leaving for high-major offers. In 2021, Craig Smith left for Utah. In 2023, Ryan Odom left for VCU (and he’s now at Virginia). And Danny Sprinkle was one and done, as he left for Washington after just a year at Utah State. The Aggies have almost made the NCAA tournament in six of seven years (they won the MWC tournament in 2020 before the tournament was cancelled), and that streak is likely to continue this year. Both San Diego State and Utah State are in tiers of their own in the Mountain West this year, and Utah State is probably closer to the Aztecs than whoever is the third-best team in the conference. The Aztecs return potential MWC Player of the Year in Mason Falslev, in addition to Tucker Anderson, Drake Allen, and Karson Templin. They also added Kolby King (Butler) and Garry Clark (Texas A&M Corpus Christi) in the transfer portal. Expect the Aggies to be an NCAA tournament team once again.

36. The Mountain West’s lack of success in March Madness

Last season, the Mountain West had four bids into March Madness and went 2-4 in the tournament. In 2024, the Mountain West got six bids into the big dance and went 4-6. In 2023, they had four bids and went 5-4. Of those 11 tournament wins in three years, San Diego State has seven of them (they went to the national championship in 2023). With that said, it raises the question of whether the Mountain West should continue to get 4+ bids into the tournament if they can’t get over the hump. While it’s unlikely this iteration of the Mountain West will get six bids into the tournament, it’s conceivable that they get four once again. All of San Diego State, Utah State, and Boise State are tournament-caliber teams before they bolt for the Pac-12. Grand Canyon also has a legitimate chance. Given the elite Mountain West teams are heading to the Pac-12 after this season, this is the final chance the conference has to prove it belongs.

A10

37. The A10 is a multi-bid league once again

The last time the A10 was actually considered a multi-bid league was 2022, when Davidson got an at-large bid and Dayton was the first team out of the tournament. Aside from that, Dayton got an at-large bid in 2024 when Duquesne was a bid stealer. Last year, VCU was a bubble team that won the conference tournament, but the committee said VCU likely would not have gotten in as an at-large. This year, however, at least the top of the A10 is at-large worthy. Specifically, St. Louis and VCU should be tournament teams. For St. Louis, they have likely A10 Player of the Year with Robbie Avila, as well as a transfer class that complements his skills well. Meanwhile, VCU has a slew of ‘transfer down’ guys who previously played at high-major schools. And of course, you can never count out Dayton, which has won 21+ games six of the last seven years. Either way, this could be the year that the A10 gets back on track.

38. The St. Louis Billikens

The Josh Schertz-Robbie Avila player-coach combo is the most fun in the country (sorry, Ben McCollum-Bennett Stirtz). Schertz is an offensive mastermind who coached Indiana State to the 13th-best offense in 2024. Schertz’s teams have also had a top-three 2P% in the country. Some of that, of course, had to do with Avila, but some also had to do with Schertz’s acumen. Avila and Kalu Anya are back for the Billikens, and Schertz added Brady Dunlap (St. John’s), Quentin Jones (Northern Illinois), Trey Green (Xavier), and Paul Otieno (Quinnipac). If the perimeter play is adequate, this is a very dangerous team.

39. VCU Rams and their coaching tree

Out goes Ryan Odom, in comes Phil Martelli Jr., AND it is extremely fun that there’s a Martelli back on the sidelines in the A10. In 13 years in the A10, VCU has won 24+ games in 9 of them. Additionally, since joining the A10, they’ve had Shaka Smart (Marquette), Will Wade (NC State), Mike Rhoades (Penn State), and Ryan Odom (Virginia) as their last four coaches. That bodes extremely well for Phil Martelli Jr. Martelli brought Barry Evans with him from Bryant and then added Ahmad Nowell (UConn), Tyrell Ward (LSU), Jadrian Tracey (Oregon), and Jordann Dumont (Villanova). Remember earlier when I discussed UNC getting “multiple bites at the apple”? VCU took a very similar approach. Given VCU plays in the A10 and not the ACC, there’s much more confidence that VCU’s strategy will be successful.

Other Mid-Majors

40. USF, Bryan Hodgson, and the Everlasting Impact of Amir Abdur-Rahim

There are plenty of reasons to be down on the American Conference. USF is not one of them. After the tragic death of Coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, USF took a step back last year under interim coach Ben Fletcher. But now with former Arkansas State Coach Bryan Hodgson at the helm, USF is poised for a bounce-back. Abdur-Rahim coached at Kennesaw State from 2019 to 23. In his first year at Kennesaw State, they went 1-28. By year four, they were dancing in March Madness. That run led to Abdur-Rahim taking the USF job, where he went 16-2 in the American Conference and 25-8 overall. That following October, a couple of weeks before the season began, Coach Abdur-Rahim tragically died during a medical procedure for an undisclosed illness at just 43 years old. Coach Abdur-Rahim was on the fast track to a high-major job and was considered one of the bright, young, up-and-coming head coaches in the sport. On November 16th, Kennesaw State and USF will go head to head in the “Love Wins Classic” to honor Coach Abdur-Rahim. Needless to say, it’s extremely difficult to fill Coach Abdur-Rahim’s shoes as a coach. Bryan Hodgson is one of the few coaches who could do it. He brings Joseph Pinion and Izaiyah Nelson with him from Arkansas State while adding D2 All-American Wes Enis, Daimion Collins (LSU), and Josh Omojafo (Robert Morris) from the portal. USF is set up to be the best team in the conference, even better than Memphis.

41. Liberty may win the most games in the country

A year after going 28-7, Liberty SHOULD win even more games in 2025-26. Ritchie McKay’s squad is returning his top three players in minutes from last year’s NCAA tournament team and 52.3% of their total minutes. Liberty will desperately miss Taelon Peter, the CUSA Sixth Man of the Year, who was drafted by the Indiana Pacers in the second Round of the NBA Draft. Peter shot 45% from three for Liberty’s sixth-best 3P% last season. Despite this, Liberty shoots it well, gets efficient and easy shots, and plays their tails off defensively. That’ll likely be their identity again. While Liberty’s non-conference schedule is not released yet, they should be close to running the table in Conference USA. As a result, expect Liberty to win 30+ games this season.

42. Pat Skerry may FINALLY get over the hump

In Pat Skerry’s first season as Towson’s head coach, the Tigers went 1-31. Two years later, Towson went 25-11. Now, Towson is a model of consistency in the CAA, as they’ve won 20+ games in four straight seasons. Despite the recent success, Skerry is yet to make it to the Big Dance. Last season, after going 16-2 in the CAA, Skerry had as good a chance as many, but unfortunately, the Tigers couldn’t beat a scrappy Delaware team, as they lost in the conference tournament. That didn’t prevent Skerry from running it back. Towson brings back Tyler Tejada and Dylan Williamson, last year’s top two leading scorers, along with sophomore Caleb Embeya. Skerry also added Jack Doumbia (Wright State) and Tyler Schmidt (Valparaiso). Towson will once again be a factor in the CAA, and this year is another great opportunity for Skerry and the Tigers to get that coveted NCAA tournament bid.

43. Gonzaga looks to start a new Sweet 16 streak

After nine straight Sweet 16 appearances, Gonzaga ran into Houston in the Round of 32 last year, which subsequently ended their streak. There’s no reason for Gonzaga not to get back on track this season. Braeden Smith (Colgate) and Jalen Warley (Virginia) redshirted last year and are ready to contribute. Meanwhile, former Grand Canyon star Tyson Grant-Foster is ready to be the next Gonzaga contributor and forms a formidable duo with Graham Ike. The Bulldogs also have Braden Huff, Adam Miller (Arizona State), and Spanish freshman Mario Saint-Supry. Steele Venters is also healthy for the first time in three years, since he last played for Eastern Washington as an All-Big Sky team member. This team is deep, has star power, and will be an offensive juggernaut, just like how Mark Few likes it.

44. The West Coast Conference may be a three-bid league once again

In 2022, the WCC had Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and San Francisco all make the Big Dance. While Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are perpetually dominating that league and are NCAA tournament mainstays, the WCC has failed to get a third team in since then. But the Dons are setting themselves up well. They’re putting themselves in a position to be in position. They just need to get the job done. Chris Gerlufsen’s team has an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule that would allow them enough quad 1 and quad 2 wins to go dancing if they can get the job done. Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will almost assuredly be locks to go dancing, so it’ll be up to San Fran or maaaaybe Santa Clara to secure the third bid.

45. Illinois State’s Retention

The Redbirds’ retention in today’s state of college basketball is incredibly impressive. Coach Ryan Pedon brings four of their top five back from last year’s team, and they only lost one player to the transfer portal. The Redbirds bring back Johnny Kinzinger and Chase Walker, as well as two other starters. Additionally, Coach Pedon adds Landon Moore (Butler) and Boden Skunberg (North Dakota State). With Ben McCollum and Co. off to the Big Ten, the MVC is wide open. And while teams like Northern Iowa, Bradley, and Drake will continue to be competitive, Illinois State has as good a chance as any to win the conference.

46. Drake’s coaching tree

Speaking of the MVC, Drake’s coaching tree is immaculate. We’ve already discussed VCU’s and Iowa State’s coaching tree, but Drake’s is impressive in its own right. Their last three coaches are Niko Medved (Minnesota), Darian DeVries (Indiana), and Ben McCollum (Iowa). Now, it’s up to South Dakota State’s Eric Henderson to live up to the billing. Henderson basically had to rebuild the entire Drake roster with no returning players, so it may take a couple of years for this new iteration of the Drake team to really take off, but history is on Henderson’s side.

47. The Ivy League retention & Princeton’s downfall

Out of the six players who had eligibility remaining and returned to the Ivy League, only two are back in the conference this season. Princeton’s dynamic duo of Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce is no longer on the roster. Lee committed to the defending champions, the Florida Gators, and it’s reported that Lee received nearly $6 million between NIL funds and a shoe deal. Meanwhile, Pierce decided to redshirt, get his degree from Princeton, and maintain his final year of eligibility. Yale’s Nick Townsend and Dartmouth’s Brandon Mitchell-Day return to their respective teams, as do honorable mentions Cornell’s Cooper Noard and Harvard’s Chandler Piggé. Ivy League Freshman of the Year, Harvard’s Robert Hinton, is also back. Additionally, Penn’s Ethan Roberts is the top scorer returning to the conference after averaging 16.8 points per game. While Townsend’s Yale team may have the inside track on winning the conference once again, the Ivy League is as wide open as it’s been in quite some time.

48. The Big West has a new big two

Last season, the Big West had two of the best mid-major programs in the nation with UC Irvine and UC San Diego. Irvine went 32-7 while San Diego went 30-5. Irvine has won 79 games over the last three seasons, and they should continue to stay a mainstay atop the Big West. UC San Diego joined the Division One ranks just five seasons ago, and with former coach Eric Olen now at New Mexico, the Tritons return just one rotation player. With this said, it should be expected that UC San Diego takes a step back. However, UCSB is back at the top where they belong. Joe Pasternack’s squad returns two starters and also adds Miro Little (Utah and Baylor) and prized transfer Aiden Mahaney (UConn and St. Mary’s). Despite playing limited minutes at UConn, it should be expected that Mahaney regains his form at UCSB and wins Big West Player of the Year. Not to mention, in six of eight seasons coaching the Gauchos, Pasternack has won 22+ games. The cream rises to the crop.

49. Will Wade’s impact on McNeese State

Prior to Will Wade’s hiring at McNeese, the Cowboys hadn’t had a winning record since the 2011-12 season and hadn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1989. Meanwhile, in just two years, Wade accumulated 58 wins and went 58-11 for McNeese and won the program’s first-ever NCAA Tournament game. Now, with Wade coaching at NC State, the culture he established is still instilled in that program. With former Baylor assistant Bill Armstrong now on the sidelines, McNeese brings back their starting backcourt in the 2025 Southland Player of the Year, Jahvon Garcia, as well as DJ Richards. Meanwhile, former 4-star recruit Garway Dual joins the fray along with seven other transfers, four of whom played at the high major level. It remains to be seen whether McNeese will have the same level of success in a low-major conference like the Southland, but the culture Wade established will definitely carry over to Armstrong’s staff.

50. The College of Charleston is Gonzaga-light

Saying Charleston is the “Gonzaga of the East” is a bit extreme, but to say “Gonzaga-light”? Maybe not. It’s tough to argue considering Charleston has won 82 games in the past three years under current head coach, Chris Mack, and Louisville head coach, Pat Kelsey. Meanwhile, the Zags have won 84 games in that same time frame. With rumors that Chris Mack was going to leave College of Charleston to head to Xavier for his second stint with the team, Mack ultimately decided to stick around. The Cougars needed to replace their entire roster, essentially, and Mack was the guy for that job. In comes Mister Dean (USC Upstate), Colby Duggan (Campbell), and Connor Hickman (Cincinnati). Additionally, Charleston added Jylnn Counter (Middle Tennessee State), Christian Reaves (Clemson), and Kendall Taylor (D2 Wingate). Slowly but surely, Charleston is becoming one of the most consistent mid-major programs with continuous success.

My Projected All-Americans

All-American First Team

51. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

Toppin was a Second Team All-American last year for the Red Raiders after transferring from New Mexico. He is just one of three players who made the AP All-American team last season, and his Texas Tech team should be a national title contender. Being the best player on a top ten team should garner All-American interest for nearly anybody, but Toppin will also put up the numbers to potentially be the National Player of the Year

52. Braden Smith, Purdue

If not Toppin, then Smith should be the favorite to win National Player of the Year. Purdue will be a preseason top-two team, and there are plenty of reasons to believe they should be the favorites to win the national championship. Smith was a first-team All-American last year and has a realistic chance of breaking Bobby Hurley’s all-time assist record.

53. Cameron Boozer, Duke

Boozer will have the daunting task of replacing Cooper Flagg. Not only is he going to be the focal point of Duke’s offense and has the recruiting pedigree, but they also play the same position. Either way, Boozer, who’s a candidate to go #1 overall in the 2026 NBA Draft, has the talent to live up to the billing and secure a first-team All-American spot. If this is the scenario, even if Boozer isn’t quite Flagg, it should be considered wildly successful.

54. Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan

Somehow, someway, Lendeborg wasn’t even an All-American honorable mention last season. He should get the recognition this year after transferring from UAB to Michigan. Not only did Lendeborg’s numbers increase by 17.7 points and 11.4 rebounds per game, but the most impressive improvement was his playmaking, as he averaged 4.2 assists per game last season. Lendeborg has also won the All-AAC Defensive Player of the Year award the last two seasons. The offensive numbers combined with the defensive impact make Yaxel an easy candidate for an All-American team.

55. Darryn Peterson, Kansas

Peterson, along with Cameron Boozer and BYU’s AJ Dybansta, will be in a three-headed race to be the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The way Kansas’ roster is assembled, it’s likely Peterson will at least be the most productive in college. Peterson will be Kansas’s offensive focal point and primary playmaker, which should lead to elite counting stats. It may sound odd given he plays for Kansas, but I’m actually worried his team may not be good enough for him to garner All-American consideration.

All-American Second Team

56. Bennett Stirtz, Iowa

Stirtz was playing at Division II Northwest Missouri State just two years ago and then made the transfer up to Drake last year when Coach Ben McCollum took the Drake job. Now, the entire nation is going to have the pleasure of watching Stirtz in the Big Ten. Last year, Stirtz averaged 19.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists while shooting 50/40/79. He’s super efficient, an underrated playmaker, and an elite shooter. The jump from the MVC to the Big Ten should be a concern for some, but Stirtz is a future NBA first-round pick.

57. Donovan Dent, UCLA

Dent’s numbers were similar to Stirtz’s when Dent was playing at New Mexico last season. Dent averaged 20.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 6.4 assists while shooting 49/41/78. Similar to Stirtz, Dent is making the jump to the Big Ten, but it’s evident he is a high-major player. While UCLA is returning underrated stars Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr., Dent should be the catalyst of the offense for a borderline top ten team. With this said, Dent is set up nicely to secure an All-American selection this year.

58. Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s

Not only did Zuby average 14.7 points per game and 8.1 rebounds per game last year, but he was the defensive anchor for one of the sport’s elite defenses. With Rick Pitino’s team having championship aspirations, Zuby should be the focal point. With Bryce Hopkins’ constant injury concerns, Zuby should be the one consistent piece in Pitino’s scheme. He will once again anchor the defense and be the perceived best player on an elite team.

59. Milos Uzan, Houston

While Uzan’s numbers don’t pop off the page, he is the catalyst for a team that just lost in the national championship. But Houston should be so dominant, they’ll likely get an All-American. Uzan is the prime suspect to reap the benefits as a likely first-round NBA Draft pick.

60. Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Oweh, Uzan’s former teammate at Oklahoma, decided to forego the NBA Draft to reportedly take at least $2 million to go back to Kentucky. Oweh will benefit greatly from playing alongside Jaland Lowe and should lead the Wildcats in scoring. If Kentucky is a legitimate contender in the SEC behind Florida, Oweh will be the main reason why.

All-American Third Team

61. Darrion Williams, NC State

After deciding to transfer from Texas Tech, there’s a reason Williams had the number of suitors he had. He ultimately chose NC State over Kansas and Ohio State. Williams averaged 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists last year and should be the best player on a very good team coached by Will Wade.

62. Trey Kaufmann-Renn, Purdue

Could Purdue be competitive enough to get two All-Americans? Yes, they could. Kaufmann-Renn became the man in the middle for the Boilermakers once Zach Edey moved on to greener pastures. Last season, Kaufmann-Renn averaged 20.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. Those numbers on a national title contender should make anybody an All-American, whether or not Braden Smith is also on an All-American team.

63. PJ Haggerty, Kansas State

Haggerty is the third player returning to college basketball who made an All-American team last year, along with Toppin and Braden Smith. Haggerty, unlike Toppin and Smith, is in a new destination now after transferring from Memphis to Kansas State. Haggerty will definitely have the counting stats to be in consideration for an All-American team, but the question is how good his Kansas State team will be. If Kansas State misses the tournament, is Haggerty still an All-American?

64. AJ Dybansta, BYU

This was the toughest decision I grappled with when making these All-American predictions. Dybansta could very well be the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. But is Dybansta even going to be the best player on his own team? Last year’s leading scorer, Richie Saunders, is back for the Cougars, and Baylor transfer Robert Wright is a very high-level starter. It’s possible that any of these three players can reap the benefits of being named an All-American if BYU is as good as they’re expected to be, but Dybansta’s name value recognition may make him the choice.

65. Nate Bittle, Oregon

Bittle’s stats have improved every year of his career, and this year should be no different. Last year, Bittle averaged 14.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.9 stocks while anchoring Oregon’s defense. In a league where there are plenty of elite big men, Bittle will have the opportunity to prove himself in extremely difficult matchups for a team that should be in the tournament.

Final Four Predictions

66. Purdue Boilermakers

See storyline #13

67. Houston Cougars

See storyline #9

68. Texas Tech Red Raiders

See storyline #11

69. Louisville Cardinals

See storyline #5

Coaches on the Hot Seat/Retirement Watch

70. Expect the coaching carousel to slow down this offseason

In the 2024 offseason, there were a record 68 coaching changes in the sport. This past offseason, there have been 57. In total, that’s 125 changes in a two-year span. Given there are 364 Division One teams, that’s 34% of the possible jobs in just a two-year span. If we go back to the 2023 offseason, that’s 61 more jobs that changed hands. That makes 51% of the Division One jobs have a coach with three years or less at the job. For this reason alone, it should be anticipated that the coaching carousel should slow down substantially.

71. Bill Self, Kansas

On July 24th, it was announced that Self was hospitalized with “some concerning symptoms” and had two stents inserted. This was the second event in two years that caused Self to undergo a procedure for heart-related symptoms. Despite being just 62 years old, these health concerns may cause Self to hang it up earlier than initially anticipated. Additionally, we’ve seen multiple elite coaches retire in recent years due to the new landscape of the transfer portal and NIL in college basketball. Obviously, Coach K, Jim Boehim, and Roy Williams were older, but recent examples include Jay Wright and Tony Bennett. Self could be the next coaching legend to hang up the clipboard.

72. Tom Izzo, Michigan State

Meanwhile, Tom Izzo is 70 years old. He’s another coach where the end of his coaching legacy could be near. Aside from Rick Pitino and Rick Barnes, Izzo is the oldest coach in the sport. Despite this, Izzo hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Izzo has won 20+ games every year except one since 2011.

73. Kelvin Sampson, Houston

Sampson, a year younger than Izzo at age 69, has turned Houston into a literal powerhouse program. No active coach who hasn’t cut down the nets as national champions deserves it more than Sampson does. And he’s still coveting that. An interesting caveat, however, is that his son, Kellen, is an assistant coach on the staff and is the presumed head coach in waiting. Maybe this expedites the process. But either way, I think I speak for all college basketball fans when I say we need to see Kelvin cut down the nets in April before he announces his retirement.

74. Greg McDermott, Creighton

It remains to be seen if McDermott, 60 years old, would leave Creighton for another job. McDermott has been the coach for the Blue Jays since 2010. But High Point head coach Alan Huss decided to return to the Creighton bench this offseason to become the coach-in-waiting behind McDermott. There’s an assumption that McDermott’s retirement could be coming sooner than expected if Huss decides to leave his head coaching job to become an associate head coach behind McDermott once again.

75. Penny Hardaway, Memphis

Coach Penny is going into year eight on the sidelines for the Tigers, and they’ve still won just one NCAA tournament game. And the roster he’s assembled this year likely doesn’t win one either. Many of his teams underachieved, too. Penny has an elite recruiting track record, but very underwhelming results. Memphis is also trying to get into a power conference, as they just offered over $250 million to the Big 12 to allow the Tigers to join the conference. With the ambitions of this athletics program, eventually the underwhelming track record needs to speak for itself. Not to mention the recruiting violations. In my opinion, this is Penny’s last year on the job.

76. Wes Miller, Cincinnati

From 2011-2019, the Bearcats made nine straight NCAA tournaments as members of the Big East and then the AAC. They haven’t made the tournament since. Entering year three in the Big 12 and year five under Coach Miller, the clock is ticking. Last season, the Bearcats came in 20th in the AP preseason poll and were perceived as a guaranteed tournament team. They ended up going 7-13 in conference and 19-16 overall. This offseason, the expectations are much lower. What is worth noting, however, is that Miller finished higher than his preseason KenPom ranking each year at Cincinnati before last season. It’s not necessarily tournament or bust for Miller’s Bearcats, but he’ll at least need to overachieve drastically.

77. Hubert Davis, North Carolina

Davis has had an odd first four years in Chapel Hill. His first season, the Tar Heels were an 8 seed heading into the tournament, and UNC ended up going to the national championship game before blowing a halftime lead to Self’s Jayhawks. In 2022-23, the Tar Heels missed the tournament entirely before bouncing back and retaining a 1 seed in 2023-24. Last season, the Tar Heels controversially made the tournament before losing in the Round of 64. In February, amid the Tar Heels’ struggles, it was announced that Davis signed a head-scratching two-year extension. This year should dictate a lot about Davis’ future as UNC’s coach. If the Tar Heels are able to demonstrate they’re a blue blood, his job should be safe. If not, Davis’ seat should be getting pretty hot pretty quickly.

78. Johnny Dawkins, UCF

Dawkins is going into year ten for the Knights. In the first nine years, UCF has been to just one NCAA tournament. Now entering year three in the Big 12 and another underwhelming roster, something’s got to give eventually. Obviously, UCF joined the Big 12 due to its football pedigree, but in terms of basketball, a new voice in the locker room could be long overdue.

79. Jerome Tang, Kansas State

In Tang’s first year with the Wildcats, they peaked as high as fifth in the AP Poll and made the Elite Eight. What an encore. Since? The Wildcats haven’t made the NCAA tournament in either of the last two years. Last season, Kansas State spent an unheard-of amount on NIL to secure Coleman Hawkins, among others. It was one of the most expensive rosters in the sport. They were 49th in KenPom in the preseason and ended the season 65th. This upcoming season, the Wildcats secured a commitment from Third Team All-American, PJ Haggerty. I’m not saying Tang will lose his job with another underwhelming season for Kansas State, but suddenly, his seat could be getting warm.

80. Bobby Hurley, Arizona State

Hurley has completed ten seasons as the Sun Devils’ head coach. He’s made the tournament three times, all three times they were an 11 seed, and all three times they played in the first four in Dayton. The Sun Devils have been a bubble team at best in Hurley’s tenure. Despite securing commitments from high-level recruits like Joson Sanon and Jayden Quaintance last year, Hurley still couldn’t build a successful roster around the two highly touted freshmen. And the roster this season is underwhelming. This is likely Hurley’s last chance to save his job.

81. Steve Pikiell, Rutgers

Many media outlets are torn on Pikiell. In 2021 and 2022, he led Rutgers to back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances for the first time since 1975 and 1976. And if the 2020 tournament weren’t cancelled, it likely would’ve been three in a row. It’s been a little disastrous since then. Last season, with 5-star freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey aboard, Pikiell couldn’t quite build a roster around the duo to accommodate their skill sets, and Rutgers had a losing season. And now this upcoming season, Rutgers may have one of the least talented high-major rosters in the sport. The more critical roster building has become in college basketball, the more Pikiell has struggled, it seems. He might not lose his job this season or next offseason, but the clamoring will begin to get louder.

82. Thad Matta, Butler

Last season was Matta’s second-ever season with a losing record and the second time in three years at Butler. Prior to his second stint at Butler, that did not happen in 17 seasons. For this upcoming year, Butler has the 21st highest-ranked freshman recruiting class per 247sports. While some of the lack of ability to recruit in the portal may have to do with Matta, some may also be the resources Butler is providing. Matta may ultimately end up being the scapegoat, but it’ll be tough for Butler to get a coaching improvement if they decide to go their separate ways.

Coaches Ready to Jump to the High Major Ranks

83. Josh Schertz, St. Louis

Schertz is an offensive mastermind. In 2024, he coached Indiana State to the 13th-best offense in the country. That year, the Sycamores were first in 2P%, second in FT%, and 11th in 3P%. Last year, in his first year as the Billikens’ head coach, Schertz came back to earth a little bit. I’m still a believer. Schertz’s teams shoot more threes than almost anybody else in the country, and last year’s SLU team wasn’t equipped with adequate long-distance snipers. This upcoming season, he surrounded star big man, Robbie Avila, with a lot more shooting and ball handling.

84. Tony Skinn, George Mason

Another A10 coach, but this one might be a little bit more premature. Since taking over for Kim English, Skinn has coached the Patriots to a 47-21 record. Both years, Skinn finished higher than his KenPom preseason projection, and his defensive infrastructures both years have been excellent. There was even some prediction that Skinn could replace Kevin Willard as Maryland’s head coach when Willard left for Villanova. At just 42 years old, Skinn is considered one of the up-and-coming coaches in the country.

85. Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon

Everything stated in storyline #34 about Grand Canyon can be reiterated for this one. Drew has demonstrated he’s an elite mid-major coach after a successful stint at Valparaiso and is now leading Grand Canyon to four NCAA tournaments in five years. However, he struggled to leave his mark as head coach at Vanderbilt from 2017 to 19. Maybe the Mountain West is the happy medium that Drew needs to prove himself. Grand Canyon has won 103 games in the last four years under Drew and could win 20+ more this year, even after making the jump to the Mountain West. Maybe the urgency to jump to a higher program dissipated with Grand Canyon now in the Mountain West. But maybe that’s just another stepping stone for Drew to demonstrate his coaching prowess.

86. Chris Gerfulsen, San Francisco

Coach Gerfulsen had huge shoes to fill after Todd Golden left San Fran to take the Florida job (where he won a national championship in year 3). Despite not making an NCAA tournament in Gerfulsen’s tenure, it’s tough to say his first three years haven’t been wildly successful. In total, the Dons are 68-35 in those three years. And they’ll likely win 20+ games again. While it’s difficult being the third-best team in a traditionally two-bid league, that’s exactly the spot Gerfulsen & Co. find themselves in. It’s also worth noting Gerfulsen has either tied or beaten his preseason KenPom ranking each season at the helm.

87. Brian Wardle, Bradley

While terms of the deal were not discussed, Wardle signed a contract extension last week. Quite frankly, Wardle finds a way to win regardless of who’s on his roster. It’ll be interesting to see how the Braves do this year without Darius Hannah and Duke Deen on their roster. And the Braves have won 76 games in the past three seasons, an incredible feat in any conference. But it’s a testament to Wardle that his teams are as good as they are every season in the Missouri Valley.

88. Ben Jacobsen, UNI

In 18 years at the helm, Jacobsen has had a winning record 14 times. He’s also won 20+ games 10 times. This year should be much of the same for the Panthers. Jacobsen has been to the NCAA tournament four times and made it past the first Round in three of them. His team has even finished 18th in KenPom in 2015 after winning 31 games. Jacobsen has established himself as one of the best mid-major coaches in the sport, and he’s due for a higher-profile job soon.

89. Mitch Henderson, Princeton

Henderson is going into his 14th season as Princeton’s coach. He has had a losing record just once. The Tigers have also won 20+ games in six seasons under Henderson. He’s also found a way to recruit and develop NBA-level talent in the Ivy League, with examples such as Xaivian Lee, Caden Pierce, and Tosan Evboumwan. Henderson, a Princeton alumnus, may be perfectly content to continue his dominance in the Ivy League. But it wouldn’t be surprising if a high-major job tempted him.

90. Ritchie McKay, Liberty

All McKay does is win. In 10 seasons since returning to Liberty, he’s won at least 21 games eight times. Additionally, McKay’s teams have had a winning record for nine straight seasons while Liberty was playing in three different conferences. McKay’s teams have also finished higher than his KenPom preseason projection six times. McKay has high major experience as a head coach (thought that was in 2001-2002) at Oregon State, and he was also an assistant for Tony Bennett at Virginia from 2010-2015. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him make it back to the high major ranks.

91. Joe Pasternack, UCSB

In 8 seasons, Pasternack won 20+ games 6 times. That statistic has been repeated for a lot of the coaches listed in this section, but consistently winning matters. Pasternack has also never had a losing record while roaming the sidelines for UCSB. And the roster he’s assembled is going to be extremely competitive in the Big West once again. Pasternack also has developed NBA talent such as Ajay Mitchell, Miles Norris, and Gabe Vincent.

92. Russell Turner, UC Irvine

Turner’s Anteaters have had a winning record for 13 straight seasons. Additionally, Turner’s teams have won 28 or more games 3 times. That’s impressive in the last 11 years. Turner’s defenses have been top 40 four times, per KenPom. There’s a reason Irvine is one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the sport, and Turner is one of the most overdue coaches for a high-major job in the sport as well.

93. Takayo Siddle, UNC Wilmington

Siddle has been talked about for years as one of the mid-major coaches ready to take the jump. Over the last four years, Siddle’s squad has won 99 games. Siddle’s offenses are traditionally one of the mid-majors’ best, and North Carolina is a hot spot for recruiting. With this said, Siddle will have plenty of opportunities to continue being highly competitive in the CAA and should eventually parlay that into a high-major job.

94. Dan Earl, Chattanooga

In ten seasons, Earl’s teams have overachieved their KenPom preseason rankings seven times. Earl also turned VMI’s program around before taking the Chattanooga job, and VMI is one of the most difficult jobs in the country. Earl’s Chattanooga teams have also gotten better each season, winning 18, 21, and 29 games the last three seasons. He’s also assembled some very good offenses. Earl is still coveting his first NCAA tournament appearance, and he might not become a household name until he crosses that off his bucket list.

95. Andrew Wilson, VMI

Everything stated above about VMI being one of the most difficult jobs in the country can be reiterated for purposes of this storyline. Wilson had VMI go 7-11 in the SoCon, a very competitive mid-major conference, last season. The Keydets are returning four starters and ten of their top eleven players from last season. The Keydets are going to be competitive once again and are coming off a season where they won two games in the SoCon tournament. Despite the record and numbers not jumping off the page, a smart school should take a chance on Wilson.

96. Bob Richey, Furman

Richie has been incredibly good during his time at Furman. The Paladins have won 23+ games a whopping six times in his eight seasons on the sidelines. They’ve also won 25+ games four times! And Richie has never coached a team with a losing record. Richie’s teams are incredibly consistent, and he might be the most overdue of all the coaches on this list for a higher-profile job.

OTHER TOPICS

97. The Race for the #1 Pick

If you haven’t figured it out by now, all of AJ Dybansta (BYU), Cameron Boozer (Duke), and Darryn Peterson (Kansas) could go #1 overall in the 2026 NBA Draft. I have all three of them as All-Americans, which demonstrates how exciting a race to go #1 could be. If I had to guess, I’d go 1) Peterson, 2) Boozer, and 3) Dybansta. However, it could end up in any order on draft night.

98. The flood gates have opened for European basketball to join the NCAA

Over the last couple of seasons, we’ve seen European players such as Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic commit to Illinois and Zvonimir Ivisic commit to Kentucky. But now the floodgates have opened. There’s 22-year-old Luka Bogavac for UNC, Ivan Kharchenkov for Arizona, Ilias Kamardine for Arizona, Neoklis Avdalas for Virginia Tech, and so on. The NCAA allowing these European players to gain NCAA eligibility is giving a new avenue for players who may not play as much overseas to be elite college players. For example, Virginia’s Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grunloh each played between 20 and 22 minutes per night overseas. In college basketball, they’ll both be starters for an ACC contender.

99. No tournament expansion this year

After much negotiation, it appears NCAA tournament expansion talk will at least be held off for another year. In my opinion, it’s inevitably going to happen because there’s too much money at stake for it not to, but for now, the field of 68 remains.

100. The Players Era Festival has killed the Maui Invitational

Last year’s Maui Invitational field was historically good. This year, it may not have a definitive NCAA tournament team. Meanwhile, the Players Era Festival in Vegas has 18 of the best teams in college basketball, with the winning team getting an NIL prize. This could be a coincidence, but given that teams are limited in the number of MTEs they can do, it seems that the focus has shifted towards the Players Era Festival rather than participating in Maui.

With this said, these were the top 100 storylines to know heading into the 2025-26 college basketball season. While some believe that power conferences are dominating due to the nature of the transfer portal and NIL, this article’s purpose was to demonstrate that there are a lot of really good high-major teams, but also that the mid-major isn’t dead.

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