Intro
Like most fans or NBA draft analysts, I have Cooper Flagg at 1 and Dylan Harper at 2 on my big board.
But the 3rd pick is where this draft gets interesting.
In this article, I’ll make the case for South Carolina F/C Collin Murray-Boyles.
Alright, I know what you’re thinking:
“CMB with the 3rd pick? You’re crazy! It’s Ace Bailey. Or Maybe VJ Edgecombe. But there’s no way CMB is going 3rd!”
Anyone thinking that right now – it’s probably just because that’s what all of the mainstream sites, big boards, and mock drafts have been telling us all season long.
They condition us to think a certain way.
But the consensus is often wrong. NBA teams frequently pick players too high (or low) in the draft, as we see here:
Archetype Analysis
Let’s think about this critically here. Chet Holmgren was a consensus top 3 pick. He went 2nd in the draft – many folks thought he was the best prospect in his draft class. Evan Mobley – ditto.
Alex Sarr. Sure, his draft class was weaker at the top, but he was a consensus top-three pick throughout the whole draft cycle. He went 2nd pick, and many folks had him 1st on their big board.
If all of these guys were consensus top 3 picks, why not Collin Murray-Boyles?
Then there’s Victor Wembanyama and Joel Embiid, who are on a different level than these other guys. Still, the common thread with all of them is an elite defensive anchor big with high feel, high processing, and high basketball IQ on both ends of the floor who also has enough offensive skill and scoring ability to be a featured part of his team’s offense.
Jaren Jackson Jr. was the fourth pick and, by the age of 25, had become a two-time all-star and two-time DPOY.
Bam Adebayo was the 14th pick and is a 3x all-star and 4x all-defensive team. He’s been a defensive anchor and one of the leading scorers on a team that’s made 2 trips to the NBA finals – by age 27.
Kristaps Porzingis was the fourth pick in the draft. He’s always had a ton of offensive skill and scoring ability. Over the course of his career, he’s become a better decision-maker, a guy who can fit better within the team concept. He’s become an elite post-up player and a good defensive anchor for a Celtics team that was one of the best squads of all time en route to the NBA title.
I’m not saying that CMB is going to be as good as Embiid or Wembanyama. He probably won’t be as good as some of the others, like Holmgren and Mobley.
But I think he’s got a good chance to be a good defensive anchor. He could make an all-defensive team – perhaps multiple all-defensive teams. And I think he has a good chance of being a top 2 or 3 scoring option on a good NBA team.
That’s an extremely valuable player in the modern NBA.
Too Small?
Okay, now I know what you’re thinking:
“CMB is too small. There is no way an NBA team is taking a 6’7” big with a top 3 pick!”
First of all, we don’t know for sure that he’s 6’7”. He’s likely around 6’7” or 6’8” in shoes. We’ll find out for sure at the draft combine in May.
Secondly, I think a common misconception is that a player’s size is based solely on height. There’s a lot more to it than that. Height matters, sure. But so does weight. So does wingspan. So does standing reach—also, strength and athleticism. Also, a player’s instincts and timing can allow them to get more rebounds than taller players. A shorter player has a lower center of gravity and often can move and change directions quicker than guys who are 7’0” or taller, which can also help them grab boards and defend near the basket.
One general rule of thumb is that if a player can rebound well relative to others in their position, it’s hard for me to call him undersized.
For the sake of simplicity, though, I’ve listed Murray-Boyles here, along with some bigs currently playing in the NBA – showing their height and weight when they were drafted, as well as their TRB% during their pre-draft season.
While Murray-Boyles is the shortest player listed there in terms of height, he’s 1st in weight and 5th out of 13 players in TRB%.
We’ll find out CMB’s wingspan at the combine. But on film, it looks to be at least 7’0”, and some folks have said his wingspan is 7’2”. He is also very strong and plays with such a high motor—he’s so active on both ends of the floor, always making things happen—that he plays bigger than his listed height.
The other criticism that CMB receives is that in addition to being just 6’7” (or perhaps 6’8”), he’s also a very limited 3-point shooter. His detractors might also say that comparing him to guys like Holmgren and Mobley is unfair because those guys are much better rim protectors.
Here’s what I would say to that.
First off, those concerns are fair – to some extent. As I’ve already mentioned, CMB probably isn’t quite as good a prospect as Holmgren or Mobley. But he could still be a top 3 prospect in the 2025 draft.
I would also ask that people reading this be open-minded to different types of players.
There are different ways to add value to your team and contribute to winning on an NBA floor.
For Holmgren, that means hitting pick n pop 3’s, running DHOs out on the perimeter, setting screens, and finishing near the basket. For Mobley, it’s less shooting 3s (especially earlier in his career) and more using his athleticism to catch lobs, crash the offensive glass, and run the floor in transition.
CMB is a little bit different. He’s stronger than those guys. And he can handle the ball like a guard. He’s got a deep bag of moves and a tantalizing face-up game and post-up game. Give him the ball on the wing or in the post, and let him go to work. He’ll either score, get fouled, or use his exceptional processing, vision, and unselfishness to pass it quickly to the open man.
Let’s take a closer look at how Murray-Boyles compares offensively to some of the other top bigs from recent drafts, who have shown impressive offensive skill and scoring ability prior to being drafted.
All numbers are each player’s pre-draft season:
The first thing I’d like to call out from this chart is that out of the 15 bigs listed here, only 6 of them shot a higher volume of 3’s (3PA / 40 Mins) than CMB did. It’s interesting – we’ve got 6 guys with a fairly high volume of 3’s (over 4 3PA / 40 Mins), while the other 9 bigs were all under 1.5 in that category, which is very low volume.
However, this data should tell us that 1.4 (or even 0.4) 3PA / 40 Mins is really not that low for an 18—or 19-year-old big. This should tell us that bigs often develop their shooting at a later age than guards or wings do.
Not to mention there’s other bigs who didn’t really shoot from 3 before the NBA but developed their 3 ball after getting to the league – such as Al Horford, Brook Lopez, Jonas Valanciunas, Jusuf Nurkic, etc. We don’t typically see that with guards/wings.
So, while Murray-Boyles wasn’t much of an outside shooter in college, there is certainly some hope that he will become a respectable shooter in the NBA. Especially since he shot a lot more 3’s as a sophomore than he did as a freshman, and his FT% also increased significantly from freshman to sophomore season, getting up over 70% this season.
CMB hasn’t been drafted yet, but out of the other 14 bigs on the chart, basically, all of them ended up being a decent shooter in the NBA – except Adebayo. And even Adebayo ended up being a 20-PPG scorer on a team that went to the NBA finals.
There are also guys like Zion Williamson and Giannis, who don’t really shoot the 3 ball with much volume or efficiency. But they have excellent ball-handling ability. They’re strong as hell, have good athleticism, and an exceptional ability to get downhill, drive to the basket and finish there.
Now, I’m not saying that CMB will be as good at driving and finishing as Zion and Giannis. But he could possibly do that kind of stuff (driving, posting up, making passes when the defense collapses, etc.) and still be a really good, productive offensive weapon – even if he’s not quite as good at that stuff as Zion and Giannis.
Also worth noting. Out of the 15 bigs listed on the chart, CMB is tied (with Sengun) for 3rd in usage %. He’s 1st in Unassisted FG at Rim / 40 Mins (an indicator that shows he can put the ball on the floor, get to the basket and finish there) although I don’t have that data for a few of the players. In Points / 40 Mins, CMB is tied for 4th on the list – with Sabonis.
Additionally, Murray-Boyles is 1st among the group in assist %. Higher than Jokic, higher than Sabonis, higher than Sengun, etc. That’s even more impressive since Murray-Boyles was on a bad South Carolina team that was lacking in offensive firepower (besides CMB) which makes it harder for someone to get assists.
Alright, now let’s dig into some film.
Scoring
One thing to keep an eye on in these clips is the combination of power and finesse used by CMB. For a guy who’s around 240-245 lbs, he can really turn on the jets and show some impressive burst when driving to the basket and getting to his spots. But he’s also very crafty – he can definitely change speeds. He’s good at reading his defender, reading the floor, understanding time/score, and factoring all of that into figuring out how he should track his defender. Should he try to blow by his man or use more craft stop-and-start types of moves, spin moves, up and under, etc?
Along the lines of craft, also look out for how awesome CMB’s footwork is, especially when maneuvering around the post to create some space and create a quality shot.
Let’s take a look at some plays where he scores the basketball. This first play I especially like because we see how tight his handle is for such a big dude. He uses that tight handle for a sick crossover dribble, then spins towards the basket and shows exceptional touch on the shot while falling away from the basket – scoring on All-American Johni Broome:
Here’s some more scoring clips. Really like the first play where we see iso scoring ability. Very rare for a guy as big and strong as CMB to be able to handle the ball like this and do a move like he does here with the stutter dribble.
Playmaking
As we’ve already touched on, Murray-Boyles ability to see the floor, read the game, make smart decisions with the basketball and not only score but also create shots for teammates is excellent.
Let’s take a look at some of his passing on film.
First, this touch pass out to the open shooter is awesome:
Here’s some more clips that show CMB’s playmaking. I especially like the first play where again we see how tight his handle is. How he’s got the ball on a string, backs his man down, shows good patience to let the play develop and not force anything – then dishes it across the lane to an open teammate for a layup. That’s just good basketball.
Defense
Before we dig into the defensive clips, there’s something I want to point out with his defense. When we talk about bigs who are excellent defenders, who can make an all-defensive team, who can help anchor their team’s defense, they typically fit 1 of these 3 buckets:
- Primary rim protector who plays mostly drop coverage (Gobert, Kessler, Porzingis, Holmgren, Wembanyama, etc.)
- Big who are switchable, can defend in space. They’re tough, physical, smart defenders, and they offer some help with side rim protection (Draymond Green, Horford, Adebayo, Tillman, etc.).
- Bigs who can do both of the above (Mobley, Sarr, Jaren Jackson Jr, Claxton, Robert Williams, etc.)
Murray-Boyles is in the second bucket, with the potential to end up in the third bucket if his rim protection continues to improve. With that being said, I wouldn’t necessarily say that any of these buckets are more valuable than others. After all, lots of folks think that Green is a top 10 (or even top 5) defender of all time.
Meanwhile, Gobert has won 4 DPOY awards. I think that all 3 of the buckets are super valuable.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some of CMB’s defense on film.
CMB is always alert, always locked in, and ready to make a play, on ball or off ball:
Here’s some more defensive clips, starting with a play where he shows some textbook post up defense. CMB uses his strength to bump a little bit and hold his ground, makes things difficult for the offensive player – without fouling.
Other Notes
We’ve mentioned already that Murray-Boyles has excellent handles, especially for a big. It’s a rare thing, though – when bigs (play a good chink of their mins at PF and/or C) have handles and shot creation ability that is this good at such a young age.
When I think about other recent prospects who fit that description, I think about Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero, Wembanyama, and Holmgren to a lesser extent. You could also probably put guys like Anthony Davis, Sengun, Embiid, Jokic, and Towns in that group.
Notice a trend? All of these guys turned out to be stars in the NBA.
If we look at the entire 2025 draft class and think about which players have the best handles (control of the ball, moves with the ball, tight handle, ball on a string) it’s probably Jeremiah Fears and Dylan Harper at the top of the list. But honestly, CMB might be third.
Next, if we think about which 2025 draft prospects play the hardest and who have a motor that is consistently high – the two guys at the top of the list for me are Cooper Flagg and Collin Murray-Boyles.
In terms of which prospects in this class have the best feel, processing, and IQ on both ends of the floor, again, it’s Flagg and CMB. Harper, probably after that.
Strongest dudes in the class? There are other dudes who are strong: Yaxel Lendeborg, Vlad Goldin (who might not get drafted), Joseph Tugler (who might not get drafted this year), and Josh Jefferson (who might not get drafted this year). But in my opinion, CMB is at the top of the list.
You put all of these traits together and keep in mind that CMB is still only 19 years old (turns 20 about 2 weeks before the draft) and you start to have a compelling case to draft him in the top 3 picks.
Other Options at Pick 3?
Most people have Ace Bailey in that spot. But he has quite a few red flags. Low BPM, low assist %, a shot diet that relies too heavily on tough jumpers, and not enough easy shots closer to the basket. Issues with his handle and ability to create space and get downhill. Finishing issues near the basket – especially if he has to finish through contact. Bailey is skinny and plays upright a lot of the time, which results in getting beat off the dribble on defense or struggling to get by his man on offense.
Quite a few folks have Edgecombe in that 3 spot. He certainly has a case, but it’s fair to question what his realistic upside and role will be on offense in the halfcourt. Edgecombe is really limited as a creator off the dribble in the halfcourt. He struggles to hit jumpers off the dribble, drive to the basket, and finish at the rim. Might end up just being a 3&D type of guy. But the shooting isn’t great (it’s good but not great), and most of the really good 3&D guys over the years (like Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, OG Anunoby, Jaden McDaniels, etc.) are a bit bigger than Edgecombe, who’s 6’5″ (in shoes), with a 6’6″ wingspan and 188 lbs.
Some folks even have Derik Queen as high as the 3 or 4 spot. While he could end up providing somewhat similar value on offense, CMB is the far better defender.
Is CMB a 4 or a 5?
I think that, ideally, he’s a 5. Adebayo has been a 5 for pretty much his whole career in Miami. He has not been much of a 3-point shooter. But the Heat have done a good job of spacing the floor out, surrounding Bam with shooters. So it has worked out very well with Bam as a 5. A role kind of like that would probably be best for Murray-Boyles. Jokic is a 5. Sabonis is a 5, so is Sengun, so is Holmgren.
We have seen guys like Anthony Davis, Towns, Horford, and Mobley play the 4 a bit. A few teams in recent years have had some good success with double-big lineups. Usually, you need at least 1 of the bigs to be a good outside shooter (Like Horford and Robert Williams, where Horford could shoot. Gobert and Towns when Towns could shoot. Lopez and Giannis, with Lopez as a shooter). It doesn’t always work out well, though, as we saw in Indiana with Sabonis and Turner. Turner was a shooter, and it still didn’t work – mostly because, in terms of defense and mobility, both Sabonis and Turner were better suited to play the 5.
It might be able to work pairing CMB with another big and playing CMB at the 4. But the fit would probably have to be just right. It may be tricky to find that fit. CMB is around 240 – 245 lbs. Most guys in the league who weigh that much play the 5. And you look at CMB’s rebounding numbers, he can rebound like a 5. He can protect the rim pretty well.
CMB doesn’t really catch lobs very well and doesn’t shoot the 3 very well. Mobility-wise, he can play the 4 but is more of a 5. So I think the easiest and best fit is for him at the 5. But there might be a fit out there where a team has another big who can catch lobs, shoot the 3 and perhaps has the mobility to play more at the 4 – then that could be a good fit. Perhaps that fit is pairing him with someone like Alex Sarr in Washington. Maybe it could work well with CMB next to Wembanyama in San Antonio.
But I also like CMB’s fit at the 5 so he can be a passing / playmaking / DHO hub out on the perimeter. Has more space to operate when driving and posting up. Overall he could have a role on offense kind of similar to guys like Adebayo, Jokic, Sengun and Sabonis – who all play the 5.
Weaknesses
It’s pretty straightforward here. The shooting isn’t great. It’s coming along. There’s some potential as a shooter. But if the jumper doesn’t work out, it could limit his ceiling as a player and how well he could fit in on certain teams and in certain lineups.
The size at 6’7″ could end up being a bit of an issue, with the taller players in the NBA. Worst case scenario, he ends up being a tweener where he’s too short to play the 5 and isn’t quick enough or a good enough shooter to play the 4.
Also, can be kind of turnover prone when driving and creating his shot or when trying to make overly ambitious passes. But I think that will smooth itself out as he keeps working on his game, developing and is surrounded by more talented teammates in the NBA and is able to play next to at least 1 really good scorer so he doesn’t have to carry the offense by himself like he did this season for the Gamecocks.
Wrapping it Up
So there you have it. I’ve got Murray-Boyles 3rd on my draft board at this point.
I know what you’re thinking next:
“Is there any scenario where if I’m an NBA team, do I possibly take CMB with the 2nd pick?”
Probably not. I think there is a gap between Harper and CMB. But it’s not a huge gap. There is a world where CMB ends up being in the same ballpark as guys like Mobley and Holmgren (in terms of overall impact and role as a defensive anchor big who’s also a good secondary scorer), while Harper could end up being in the same ballpark as guys like Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero (good no.1 scoring options who can lead an offense, create for others and play solid defense).
All of those players are still very early in their careers, but I think at this point, quite a few folks would take Holmgren/Mobley on their teams over Banchero/Cunningham.
One reason why I do have Harper over Murray-Boyles is because it’s definitely not a certainty that CMB will end up being as good as Holmgren/Mobley. There’s a pretty good chance he ends up falling short of that level. Meanwhile, I do think there’s a pretty good chance that Harper ends up being better than Banchero/Cunningham.
I’m very excited about CMB as a prospect. But at the same time, I do have to acknowledge that we just haven’t seen this type of prospect become a star very often. By that, I mean a big who’s only about 6’7″/6’8″, doesn’t catch lobs, is a very limited shooter, and may also be too slow to play the 4. Harper is easier to project at the next level. There’s less convincing you have to do – less mental gymnastics you have to do to justify taking Harper in the top 2 picks.
Next question you might have:
“If a team picking at 2 already has a lead guard, do you take CMB over Harper?”
I would say maybe but probably not. That high in the draft (top 3 or even top 5 picks) it’s typically best to go with the best player available (BPA) and not really worry about team fit. Look at Jayson Tatum. The Celtics had a bunch of wings, including Jaylen Brown who they drafted 3rd pick the year before. But they took BPA and it worked out perfectly.
Blazers in 1984 went for team need by drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan and that worked out horribly. Suns and Kings went with Ayton and Bagley over Doncic or Trae Young because they didn’t need a PG. That also backfired. There’s other examples, but you get the idea.
If Charlotte gets the 2nd pick, maybe they decide to take CMB because Harper and Lamelo Ball could be a poor fit. But at the same time, I would still probably go Harper in that scenario. There’s already been a bunch of rumours about the Hornets trading Ball this offseason. Maybe you get the 2nd pick, then trade Ball, get some really good players/picks in return, then draft Harper 2, and now all of a sudden, you’re in a good spot with a good young core.
I think that pretty much regardless of what the draft order ends up being, at this point I would go Flagg at 1, Harper at 2, CMB at 3.
Thanks for reading!
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