Hi, everyone. Today, I’ll be making a comprehensive case on why the NBA All-Star should be abolished and replaced by a final stage of the NBA Cup in a way that would be similar to the European Cup competitions that took place last week.
I’m kidding, of course, as I won’t be making any case for that, as much as I believe that the NBA All-Star weekend and its format need a total makeover. Instead, I’m back with my NBA draft notes from a very eventful week.
So, on the eve of the 21st anniversary of Rasheed Wallace playing his one and only game for the Atlanta Hawks, let’s dive in!
Unfriendly context?
ESPN’s Jonathan Givony dropped his latest mock draft—it’s a monthly event that almost never fails to attract controversy. This time, one of the interesting aspects was Givony’s take on Michigan State’s freshman guard Jase Richardson. In a tweet, Givony mentioned how NBA scouts were wondering whether Richardson could be truly unleashed in a “friendlier team context.”
“Returning to college and absorbing full-time playmaking responsibilities next season might be beneficial for both his long-term development and draft outlook, but it will be interesting to see how his role evolves now that he has shown what he can do,” Givony wrote in his article.
This garnered controversy because, in its essence, it was a criticism of none other than the legendary Tom Izzo, now the all-time winningest coach in Big Ten history. But I think the fact that we’re even entertaining the idea of Richardson returning to Michigan State for a sophomore year suggests that there might be some juice to that ‘unfriendly team context’ thing despite Richardson’s theoretically awkward fit in the NBA as an undersized off-ball guard that’s not a high volume knockdown shooter (yet).
Because if we look at Jase’s production beyond the box score numbers, there’s a much stronger case for him to be drafted in the lottery than to return to East Lansing. As Roshan (@PickAndRo) from Swish Theory noted, Richardson hits a sweet spot of translatable players who are super efficient from multiple levels of the court.
He’s logging 65% true shooting and shoots well from the three, albeit on a limited volume (6.3 attempts per 100). He’s also very good at the free throw line, so there are more than enough indicators that Jase could eventually develop into a very good shooter in the NBA.
Richardson is Michigan State’s leader in BPM but somehow gets to play just 54% of the team’s total minutes. Per Evan Miya, Richardson is featured in 4 of 5 of the best five-man lineups for Michigan State this season. Also, as I noted on Twitter, 4 of Richardson’s best games this season coincide with four games where he had his highest usage. Being a well-known hater of analytics, Izzo probably doesn’t care about that too much, though.
I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but it seems like guys like Jaden Akins or Tre Holloman are paying more just because of their seniority. That alone amounts to a pretty unfavorable situation for Richardson.
He’s 30th on Givony’s big board; if Richardson declares and teams actually pass on him because he didn’t play enough or didn’t get enough on-ball reps, I have a sneaky feeling that the team that’s going to draft him is going to get a very, very solid value for their pick.
Limited minutes, huge impact
Talking about coaches that don’t do ‘phony analytics’ and players in ‘unfriendly contexts’ – hello, Mick Cronin. What’s up, Aday Mara?
The 7’3” Spaniard played just 13 minutes on Friday at Indiana, but Mara’s impact was felt all over the floor. He checked in at around 8:00 minutes left in the 1st and immediately went to work, denying Oumar Ballo at the rim and running up the floor to get a dunk on the other end.
Mara’s positive impact on UCLA is hard to look past; he’s their leader in BPM despite playing under 30% of the total Bruins’s minutes. He’s pretty much their only positive paint defender. Actually, calling him just ‘positive’ doesn’t do justice because Mara is one of the best-shot blockers in the country, posting an insane 16% block percentage. Seeing his impact during both of his stretches, it was puzzling to see that Mara sat out pretty much the entire decisive part of the game while UCLA allowed Indiana back in it. A large part of that comeback was Malik Reneau, who had his best stretch scoring in the paint during those last 7 or 8 minutes with Mara off the floor.
His 13 minutes were full of incredible highlights – blocks, rebounds, rolls to the basket, and did you see that wrap-around pass for Tyler Perry? That was pretty cool, wasn’t it?
I do wonder what’s next for Mara. I think it’s pretty clear that by now, he has improved enough for him to warrant 20-25 minutes a night for UCLA, especially considering their roster construction where there’s no other big who could provide stuff that’s even remotely similar to what Mara does on the court.
If he goes through the draft process, I don’t think he can expect anything more than a 2nd round pick, considering his limited playing time and lack of athleticism. Mara can barely jump off the floor and has major struggles moving his hips and covering ground (so I was pretty surprised to see Cronin instruct Mara to hard hedge ball screens in the 1st half).
But great paint defenders should never be underestimated, especially when they have an outstanding feel for the game and a plethora of auxiliary skills. There’s a reason why Ryan Kalkbrenner should absolutely get drafted this summer, despite being slow and 23 years old.
I think Kalkbrenner does provide a blueprint for Mara on how to get yourself into the draft conversations eventually, and staying in school or transferring somewhere where you’d get more playing time may be the answer here. Also, one thing that Mara could learn from Kalkbrenner is defending without fouling. Frankly, that’s a thing that most centers could learn from him.
Toppin goes for 41
Texas Tech against Arizona State was wild – the Red Raiders managed to hold on in double OT. In that win, Texas Tech big JT Toppin had one of the more ridiculous stat lines this season, with a career-high 41 points on 17-22 shooting and 15 rebounds, including 7 on the offensive glass.
He made 11 out of 12 shots at the rim, which is phenomenal even for a player that’s generally as good at the rim as Toppin. He made use of Arizona State’s outstanding defensive freshman, Jayden Quaintance, being out. Texas Tech is not a high-volume rim team, and Arizona State does not concede too much at the rim, yet the Red Raiders shot 81% at the basket. So, there’s probably a connection to be made here.
What’s even more incredible is that Toppin followed that up with a 32-point game at Oklahoma State just a few days later.
Overall, some of Toppin’s numbers this season are very good. He’s an incredible rebounder, especially on the offensive glass, posting a 15.2% OREB, which is pretty similar to his number in New Mexico.
Interestingly enough, Toppin’s usage jumped pretty dramatically after transferring to Texas Tech – from 19% to 30%. Some of this stuff can be attributed to Grant McCasland trying to run some more offense via Toppin, especially on post-ups, instead of relying on him as a cutter, rim roller, and offensive rebounder.
More post touches also translate to more playmaking from the post, which Toppin needed – and probably still needs – to add to his workout routine.
Toppin is a bit of a complicated eval because I think he has some semblance of a tweener – it’s pretty hard to project a clear NBA role for him. Despite some good stock numbers, I don’t think he projects as a + defender at the next level; he lacks the physicality to consistently defend the post and prevent deep post positions and rim shots. Faced with tougher Big 12 competition, he finds it more challenging to score on rolls and pops (47th percentile, per Synergy), post-ups (59th percentile), and putbacks (49th percentile). I don’t think he dunks enough, though I like his quick, soft bounce off two feet.
As a wing, Toppin doesn’t have the feet or agility to consistently step out and defend further away from the basket, in addition to being a poor shooter.
Toppin is just a sophomore, so returning for junior or even a senior season might be on the cards for him. Though he may be worth a swing in the 2nd round, right now, at least for me, he has the vibes of a very good college player who may struggle to translate to the NBA
Overcoming shooting woes?
Tennessee’s Igor Milicic Jr. was a player that I was high going into the season, dabbling in the idea that he might be an NBA draft pick in the low 20s. And he came out of the blocks with bad intentions, putting together some very strong performances in the non-conference part of the schedule, which the Vols crushed.
Milicic Jr. did cool off a bit once the super-tough SEC play began. But there was one area where the Tennessee forward struggled even when he was very good otherwise, and that was three-point shooting. Last season at Charlotte, he took a significant step forward in that department, making 38% of his threes at a solid 9.4 per 100 frequency.
Interestingly enough, though his overall BPM has spiked from 5.2 to a very good 8.4 this season, mainly due to fantastic rebounding and improved assist numbers (he’s been hitting some VERY juicy backdoor passes recently), true shooting is down from 63.7 to 59.5%.
But in his last few games, Milicic Jr. has seen a significant uptick in production; he was fantastic in both games that Tennessee played against Kentucky over the span of 2 weeks.
What’s more important is that Milicic Jr. has been shooting the three very well in those games, making 4 at home against Kentucky, two at Mizzou, and 3 in the away game at Rupp Arena.
In last week’s Kentucky game, Milicic Jr. was quiet for most of the first half but exploded in the second, bringing Tennessee within striking distance in the 2nd.
I still think Milicic Jr. is underrated – to me, he’s pretty comfortably Tennessee’s best prospect and checks a lot of boxes for a rotational NBA forward, though the consensus for him on most draft boards seems to be in the 40s or 50s.
The feel, positional size, and foot speed combo remain very intriguing; if the shooting improvement holds, Milicic Jr. is a very good, older prospect bet for a late 1st/early 2nd pick.
Should we let go?
Ah, Nolan Traore, the (somewhat) forgotten pre-season top 5 NBA draft pick.
ESPN’s Givony still has Traore at 14, though on most boards, he’s lower than that, and on some, the Frenchman guard is out of the top 30 entirely.
It was a weekend of European Cup competitions, so Traore used his opportunity to remind everybody about himself in the French Cup. He had an impressive performance against Paris in the quarterfinals, leading Saint Quentin to an upset 92:86 victory, before falling short in the semifinal against Le Mans.
Leading an underdog team to a victory against Paris, a talented (albeit stumbling) Euroleague team, is no joke.
Traore, for me, is a case where my head says I should let go of him as an NBA prospect, but my heart tells me to give him another chance. Against Paris, his rim pressure was fantastic – Traore has such a quick burst that he can easily get into the teeth of the defense. There were a couple of impressive drives off the catch. Traore is always a threat to blow by his defender, creating advantages and making plays for others. This stuff still moves me very much.
But the shooting is something you can’t ignore, and, for a player of Traore’s profile, that can be a death sentence as far as your NBA ambitions go. He’s logging a second pro season in a row where he’s hovering around 46-49% true shooting. The shooting stuff wasn’t that great in the FIBA U18s last summer, either.
Also, Traore struggled on defense; some of the stuff navigating ball screens was rough.
I doubt I’ll return on the Nolan Traore train this cycle. He’s a bit like Isaiah Collier to me because he’s a playmaking wizard who can’t shoot the ball to save his life. Ball-dominant guards with poor shooting ability and questionable defense are a problematic fit in the NBA; it’s pretty hard for them to play complementary roles because those require shooting and defense.
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