Happy New Year, everybody! That can only mean one thing – conference play in college basketball is now in full swing, so, no more cakewalks and beatdowns of bottom tier D1 teams for teams in high major conferences.
This is when the NBA draft cycle truly gets going, and we began 2025 with Cooper Flagg returning to the top of the freshman BPM leaderboard, reestablishing his case to be picked 1st in June’s draft.
Other than that, there’s a lot more good stuff from both high-major and mid-major conferences, so let’s dive in.
Tre Johnson’s shooting
There’s no other way to put it – through 13 games of this college basketball season, Texas freshman Tre Johnson has been going ballistic shooting the ball pretty much from everywhere around the floor.
He’s 49% from catch-and-shoot situations, which is, per Synergy, good for 94th percentile, and 43.3% in off dribble shots (81%), posting a 61.7% true shooting. Johnson is scoring the basketball with remarkable consistency, failing to hit double digits in points just once so far this season.
But is Johnson anything outside of a nuclear shooter? Well, that’s the trickier part, as his over reliance on jumpers is something to be considered. His rim frequency is pretty poor, as he’s only taking 16.1% of his shots at the rim. It’s probably not a good sign that hasn’t taken a single shot at the rim in his last 3 games.
Though Johnson has nice handle flashes, he’s neither an above average vertical athlete, nor is he very strong in his upper body. That means that he has a tendency to evade contact, which leads to these tough mid range shots – which, it has to be said, are falling at a highly impressive rate – and poor free throw numbers.
Johnson does display flashes of soft touch around the rim, but is yet to develop the craft of locating angles. His 66.7% rim percentage is actually very good, but, having rewatched the film, it has to be said that Johnson generates a lot of those rim looks in transition, and really struggles getting downhill in half-court.
Johnson’s steal, block and rebounding numbers aren’t great either, raising questions about functional athleticism. Here’s a quick Bart query, looking at drafted players with a similar statistic profile.
Truth be told, the only viable comp here is Jordan Poole, though I do believe Johnson possesses an above average feel for the game and passing ability, which, coupled with his handle, does raise his ceiling quite a bit. If the shooting holds, it’s still reasonable to project Johnson as a top-10 pick.
Barnhizer rising
When you see a player posting 13+ BPM in college, it becomes difficult to overlook that guy in the context of the NBA draft.
That guy is Northwestern senior Brooks Barnhizer – easily one of the best players in the country this season, who’s having a tremendous impact on both ends of the floor. He had a great game in an away loss at Penn State, coming close to a triple double with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.
There’s a lot to like about Barnhizer. Though statistically, as I mentioned, he has a strong impact both on offense and defense, I do think defense is the more translatable part of his game.
At 6’6”, 230 lbs, Barnhizer is built like a strong perimeter defender. His stocks numbers are some of the best in the entire country, especially among players within his height range. Barnhizer is a very active and alert defender, who possesses great anticipation skills, with timely rotations and he jumps into passing lanes. At Penn State, there were at least a few instances where Barnhizer’s play on the defensive end directly led to easy layups on the other end.
Barnhizer eats up a lot of space for a 6’6” player, which is why he’s one of the top rebounders at his size in the entire D1.
On offense, Barnhizer has the physical edge over most of his peers in college. He’s not a particularly good creator off the dribble, so the Northwestern guard often resorts to his physical advantage to generate offense – shoulder bumps and back-downs, even from the three point line.
In fact, post-ups are a very important element of his offensive creation. Per Synergy, Barnhizer generates 15% of his offense via post-ups, which is highly unusually high for a guard/wing.
My main qualm with Barnhizer’s NBA projection is the fact that I don’t know if he has an offensive skill that stands out and has clear translatability potential. High post up usage from guard position won’t ring in the NBA. His shot is not great. But Barnhizer is for sure a high feel player and, considering his incredible statistical profile, it sure looks like there’s a bet to be made on him.
L’Etang’s impact
NIL has brought a lot of top-end overseas talent to college basketball, with guys like Kasparas Jakučionis and Egor Demin establishing themselves as potential lottery picks for the next year’s NBA draft.
However, one of the less flashy additions to college basketball from overseas is Dayton’s Frenchman big Amael L’Etang. Statistically, he had his best game so far this season on New Year’s Eve against La Salle, scoring 12 points, dishing out 4 assists for a total of +19.4 BPM in just 21 minutes.
L’Etang has an impressive combo of size and craftiness – at 7’1”, he towers over most of his peers, though his frame is naturally narrow. To start his college career, L’Etang has really had to earn his minutes, playing behind veteran Ohio State transfer Zed Key.
But his production in limited minutes has been undeniable. On the season, L’Etang is posting 4.3 BPM, and his assist numbers really pop, with the center posting an impressive 18.4% AST rate.
On film, L’Etang displays a high level of skill for a player his size. Having watched the La Salle game, I was really impressed by his mobility, coordination, soft hands and high level of footwork. L’Etang is a super quick roller to the basket and a tough finisher, despite his narrow frame, making 78.6% of his rim shots so far this season.
He’s making the most of his limited minutes staying active, consistently screening, popping and slipping, looking for handoffs and roll opportunities. Out of his 5 assists against La Salle, 3 were off handoffs around the three point area. I also liked his floor awareness to make plays in transition, both on offense, passing and running the floor, and defense.
L’Etang won’t be ready for 2025 NBA draft, so he’s more of an interesting long term prospect. He looks like a dude who has the makings of a good player – the production in limited minutes is surely there – but he’ll have to bulk up in the coming years to improve his paint defense. One thing that doesn’t work in his favour is that L’Etang is born in 2005 – he turns 20 later this year, so that puts a limit on his ceiling.
Also, adding a 3 point shot would be super valuable for a big of his prototype. He does take threes with confidence and at a pretty high rate, but the volume is yet to yield positive results.
Fleming’s role
Saint Joseph’s junior forward Rasheer Fleming is cementing his case to go in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft because he really looks like a super smooth next-level fit as a 3-and-D type NBA wing.
The most important aspect of his improvement this season has been the ‘3’ part. Fleming has gone from 29.7% on 6.7 attempts per 10 possessions in his freshman year, to 32.4% on 6.6 per 100 in his second season to an impressive 41% on 8.4 attempts per 100 this season.
Fleming really, really knows his role as a shooter – take and make catch-and-shoot threes, as he literally only takes C&S jump shots. His 25/61 makes on C&S threes ranks him in 79th percentile, per Synergy. Against UMass, he made 3/5, including a clutch three point shot towards the end of the second half.
On one hand, it does fit a super desirable archetype super well – Fleming is a tall shooter with a high and quick release, which is pretty difficult to contest. On the other hand, Fleming’s shooting does feel a bit one dimensional I’m not 100% sold on him as a high gravity three point shooter yet. The forward hasn’t shot his free throws super well either (34-49, 69%).
But his defense is what sets him apart. At the collegiate level, Fleming looks massive for a wing. He’s listed at 6’9” and has a reported 7’3” wingspan which, coupled with active hips, great hand-eye coordination and impressive vertical pop, enable him to make awesome plays on the defensive end of the floor, which, in some cases, turn into easy baskets on the other end of the floor. The rebounding, assist and block numbers indicate strong functional athleticism for Fleming.
He’s young for a junior – Fleming turns 21 this July. I feel like his biggest limitation is below average processing of the game and low assist numbers. Fleming has more turnovers than assists so far this season – he’s prone to some mishaps handling the ball, as well as poor reading and execution on his passes.
Bryant breakout?
One of the players I’m tipping to have a strong second half to this draft cycle is Arizona’s Carter Bryant.
There’s a few reasons for that, and it’s not just his awesome basketball name that combines two all-time greats. First of all, center Motiejus Krivas is done for the season with a foot injury, which opens up minutes in the Arizona front court. Though he isn’t a center by any means, this does mean more time for Bryant at the 4, with Henri Veesar now having to take on a bigger role at the 5.
In his limited minutes, Bryant’s production has been off the charts. He’s Arizona’s leader in BPM, despite playing less than 40% of total minutes, so his play does warrant a bigger role, with or without Krivas’s injury.
Bryant is most certainly built like an NBA player. At 6’8”, 220 lbs, he looks physically imposing every time he gets up and down the floor. There’s an element of next level strength when he goes to the rim and finishes with a dunk. This is still a super limited sample, but Bryant has made over 90% of his rim shots so far, with most of them being dunks.
His defensive numbers really pop (4.1% BLK, 3.8% STL), though, it has to be said, some of them may be slightly inflated against lower level of competition, as these games, due to low sample size, still have a disproportionate influence on overall stocks numbers.
As we’ve approached conference play, there will be no easy games left for Bryant. Saturday’s game against Cincinnati, hopefully, was a sign of things to come, as the Arizona forward had a massive impact on the game with his shooting and defense in just 15 minutes, among other things, making a clutch defensive play at the end of 2nd to seal a mighty away win for Arizona.
Born in 2005, Bryant is an older freshman than most of his peers, but the NBA scouts should be taking a very close look at him from now until June. I probably sound like a broken record by now, but a lot will depend on how well Bryant is going to shoot the ball in the next couple of months.
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