Do draft and stash picks work out? How often do they work out? Should NBA teams stop making them?
I’ll try to answer these questions in this piece.
Let’s start off by discussing the strategy behind draft and stash picks. The idea is that oftentimes when you draft a guy, they’re not quite ready yet to be a contributor for the NBA team that drafts them. Chances are, they’re gonna need a year or two (maybe more) of additional development before they’ll be ready to contribute for an NBA team.
Instead of that player (who isn’t ready for prime time yet) taking up a roster spot and getting paid salary by the team, the NBA team could ‘stash’ them overseas. There, they could develop by playing for an overseas pro team. So they’re still playing for a pro team, against pro teams, and with pro teammates, playing for pro coaches. So they’re developing, getting better but they’re being paid by their overseas team, so their NBA team saves money and they save a roster spot.
Makes total sense, right? Just bring the player over once they start hitting their prime – brilliant! Most players don’t hit their prime till around age 25 anyways. So why not draft a guy at 19, stash him overseas and then when he hits his prime, bring him over and you’ve got a stud on a cheap rookie contract.
It’s a flawless strategy – right?
Oh and it gets better. What if I also told you that this strategy has already worked great with players like Arvydas Sabonis, Toni Kukoc, Peja Stojakovic, Marc Gasol, Manu Ginobili, Serge Ibaka and 3x MVP Nikola Jokic?
Okay, I know what you’re thinking:
Well not so fast, my friend. Draft and stash picks aren’t all sunshine, roses and unicorns. I think that NBA teams saw the success that those other players mentioned above had. They also saw the success that other international players were having (even those who weren’t stashed) such as Giannis, Rudy Gobert, Kristaps Porzingis and Danilo Gallinari.
NBA teams saw all these guys and all of a sudden they got drunk on draft and stashing. They started doing it too much. In an effort to not miss out on the next Jokic or Giannis, teams just started drafting and stashing tons of overseas players – even ones who weren’t good enough. Then the strategy stopped working as well.
To illustrate this point, let’s have a look at (what I think is) every draft and stash player, dating back to the 2013 draft:
| Player | Draft Year | Draft Slot | Pre-Draft Season | Years They Were Stashed Before NBA | Outcome | Hit or Miss? |
| Juan Nunez | 2024 | 36 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | TBD |
| Melvin Ajinca | 2024 | 51 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | TBD |
| Tarık Biberovic | 2023 | 56 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| James Nnaji | 2023 | 31 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 2023 | 42 | Overseas | 1 | Was brought over by Wizards but hasn’t done much for them | Miss |
| Mojave King | 2023 | 47 | G League Ignite | Still overseas | Played first year for Pacer’s G league team. Now being stashed overseas | Miss |
| Hugo Besson | 2022 | 58 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Khalifa Diop | 2022 | 39 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Ismael Kamagate | 2022 | 46 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Karlo Matkovic | 2022 | 52 | Overseas | 1 | Was brought over by Pelicans but hasn’t done much for them | Miss |
| Yannick Nzosa | 2022 | 54 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Gabriele Procida | 2022 | 36 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Matteo Spagnolo | 2022 | 50 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Luke Travers | 2022 | 56 | Overseas | 2 | Was brought over by Cavs, signed a 2-way contract. Has pretty much just been in G league – has not really contributed yet for Cleveland | Miss |
| Juhann Begarin | 2021 | 45 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Rokas Jokubaitis | 2021 | 34 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Balsa Koprivica | 2021 | 57 | NCAA | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Filip Petrusev | 2021 | 50 | Overseas | 2 | Sixers signed him to contract, traded him to Clippers who traded him to Kings. Played 1 game for Kings G league team, then got waived. Now back overseas | Miss |
| Justinian Jessup | 2020 | 51 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Yam Madar | 2020 | 47 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Vanja Marinkovic | 2019 | 60 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Sasha Vevenkov | 2017 | 57 | Overseas | 6 | Was just ok in the NBA. Returned to Europe after 1 season in NBA | Miss |
| Mathias Lessort | 2017 | 50 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Ognjen Jaramaz | 2017 | 58 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Alpha Kaba | 2017 | 60 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Guerschon Yabusele | 2016 | 16 | Overseas | 1 | Got some playing time for Boston but also struggled a bit. Went back overseas for a few years. Then got signed by Sixers to come back over to NBA | Miss |
| David Michineau | 2016 | 39 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Zhelin Wang | 2016 | 57 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Furkan Korkmaz | 2016 | 26 | Overseas | 1 | Was in the league for 7 years. Was a decent role player. Now back in Europe | Hit |
| Cedi Osman | 2015 | 31 | Overseas | 2 | Was a solid role player in the NBA for 7 years..Then returned to Europe | Hit |
| Willy Hernangomez | 2015 | 35 | Overseas | 1 | Had a solid career as a role player for 7 years, before going back overseas | Hit |
| Juan Vaulet | 2015 | 39 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Arturas Gudaitis | 2015 | 47 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Aaron White | 2015 | 49 | NCAA | Still overseas | Still overseas..has played 8 seasons overseason..is now 32 yrs old | Miss |
| Marcus Eriksson | 2015 | 50 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Tyler Harvey | 2015 | 51 | NCAA | Still overseas | Played 1 season in G league, then stashed overseas for 2 seasons, then G league for 1 year. Been stashed overseas ever since | Miss |
| Satnam Singh | 2015 | 52 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Daniel Diez | 2015 | 54 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Cady Lalanne | 2015 | 55 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Nikola Milutinov | 2015 | 56 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Nikola Radicevic | 2015 | 57 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Dimitrios Agravanis | 2015 | 59 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Luka Mitrovic | 2015 | 60 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Dario Saric | 2014 | 12 | Overseas | 2 | Was stashed, then came over to NBA and had a solid career as a role player | Hit |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 2014 | 27 | Overseas | 3 | Came over to NBA after 3 years stashed overseas. Has had a very good NBA career since then | Hit |
| Nikola Jokic | 2014 | 41 | Overseas | 1 | Stashed for 1 year, then NBA Finals MVP and NBA MVP | Hit |
| Edy Tavares | 2014 | 43 | Overseas | 1 | Played 2 years in NBA. Struggled. Went back to Europe, where he has been ever since | Miss |
| Vasilije Micic | 2014 | 52 | Overseas | 8 | Has just been ok since joining NBA. Might return to Europe next season | Miss |
| Nemanja Dangubic | 2014 | 54 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Louis Labeyrie | 2014 | 57 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Raul Neto | 2013 | 47 | Overseas | 2 | Was a decent role player for 8 years. Then went back overseas | Hit |
| Alex Oriakhi | 2013 | 57 | NCAA | Still overseas | Played whole career overseas, a little bit in G league, and is now retired | Miss |
| Bojan Dubljevic | 2013 | 59 | Overseas | Still overseas | Still overseas | Miss |
| Janis Timma | 2013 | 60 | Overseas | Still overseas | Played whole career overseas, a little bit in G league, and is now retired | Miss |
Alright, let’s start unpacking this data:
The main point I want to get across here is that we have seen a significant decline in the “hit rate” with draft and stash picks. By hit rate I mean the % of draft picks who returned good value, relative to their draft slot – while also to some extent factoring in the number of years their NBA team had to wait for them to contribute while the player was being stashed overseas.
Between 2013 – 2016 (4 drafts), there were 7 hits out of 29 picks (24.1% hit rate). That’s a very good hit rate. Included in there was Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Plus, during that time frame, there was Giannis, who (again) wasn’t a draft and stash but still, I think NBA teams back then saw the success of Giannis, Jokic and some of these others guys (Gobert too) and then started to really double down on drafting these really young (18 or 19 year old) overseas players who were raw, needed lots of development but had some upside.
But then the hit rate on draft and stash picks plummeted. It went from the aforementioned 24.1% hit rate between 2103 – 2016 to a 3.4% hit rate since 2015. During that time, only 1 out of 29 draft and stash picks was a hit. And that one hit was Furkan Korkmaz, who was just a decent role player and is now back in Europe after struggling to crack a team’s rotation for the past couple years and then went unsigned as a free agent.
Also, Korkmaz was a first round pick. Since 2016, all 25 draft and stash players have been 2nd round picks. There hasn’t been a 2nd round draft and stash who was a hit since 2015 when both Cedi Osman and Willy Hernangonez were drafted. Both Osman and Hernangomez were solid NBA players but both were just role players and both of them are now back in Europe, since no NBA team would sign them.
Since 2012, there’s only been 1 player who was a draft and stash who turned out to be a star in the NBA – Nikola Jokic. Getting a guy like Jokic as a draft and stash is the exception – not the norm. He’s the only NBA star out of 54 draft and stash players since 2012 (1.8% hit rate on getting a star with a draft and stash pick).
To recap, draft and stash picks had a 24.1% hit rate between the 2013 – 2016 drafts. But since 2015, the hit rate has been 3.4% (1 out of 29). And since 2016, there has not been a single successful draft and stash pick. Out of the past 8 drafts, there’s been 25 draft and stash players and not one of them have been hits. Although, to be fair, it is kind of hard to call guys like Juan Nunez and Melvin Ajinca a miss when they were literally just drafted a few months ago.
Still, the fact remains, the last draft and stash hit was all the way back in 2016. That’s a long time ago. Yet teams have continued on with this strategy, as 25 draft and stash picks have been made since then – and (so far) 0 of them have been hits. And again, the “hit” back in 2016 is not very relevant today, since that was Korkmaz.. There were actually two draft and stash guys from the 2016 draft who were first round picks – Korkmaz and Guerschon Yabusele. But since the 2016 draft, all 25 draft and stash picks have been 2nd rounders – 0 hits so far from that group. But since that time, teams have only been stashing players overseas who have been taken in the 2nd round – they are no longer stashing 1st round picks. They can do it, but it simply has not happened since 2016.
And there’s been no “hits” among draft and stash players taken in the 2nd round since 2015 – only 27 misses.
So, if NBA teams have shifted to only taking draft and stash picks in the 2nd round (not the 1st) and there’s been 0 hits out of 27 2nd round draft and stash players since 2015, then why do NBA teams keep making those types of picks?
I think part of it is because there’s so much basketball talent out there but not a lot of roster spots for NBA teams. The NBA expanding from two 2-way contracts per team to 3 helps. But there’s still this roster crunch for most teams. Stashing a guy allows the NBA team to have an extra player under its control.
Plus, there is a very low hit rate in general on 2nd round picks – especially picks in the 46-60 range. If the pick isn’t likely to hit anyways, why not stash a guy for a while so you’re not using a roster spot on him or having to pay him a salary?
Yes, I know. All of that stuff I covered earlier in the article when talking about the logic behind draft and stash picks for NBA teams. But if the hit rate on 2nd round picks is (just throwing a number out there) 25% but the hit rate on 2nd round draft and stash picks (since 2015) is 0%, then surely NBA teams should stop doing draft and stash picks, correct?
Maybe. I kind of doubt NBA teams will stop the practice of drafting and stashing completely anytime soon. They’ll still hold on to the hope that maybe they’ll stash the next Jokic or Ginobili. And even if the pick doesn’t pan out, picks that late in the draft usually don’t pan out anyways, so why waste a roster spot (and salary) on them?
The next thing I want to tackle here is why – why is it that we have seen such a dramatic decline in the hit rate on draft and stash picks over the past decade or so? I think there’s a couple of primary reasons. First off, (again) there’s been a shift since 2016 where NBA teams have only been drafting and stashing 2nd rounders – not 1st round picks. As I’m sure we all know, the hit rate is going to be lower on 2nd round picks than 1st round picks. So that’s part of it. Out of the 7 hits since 2012, 3 of them (Korkmaz, Bogdanovic and Saric) were 1st round picks.
Secondly, I think that over the past decade or so, NBA teams have gotten better at scouting. There’s more film that is accessible, more stats that are available to teams – stats that now get more granular than ever. Teams are doing a better job of scouting overseas. Because of all of that, NBA teams are getting better at identifying which overseas prospects are legit and which are not. The legit ones (guys like Wembanyama, Markannen, Sabonis, Sengun, Risacher, Porzingis, Giddey, etc) are being identified by NBA teams and going higher in the draft – typically in the top 20 picks.
When you combine those 2 factors together (NBA teams only stashing 2nd rounders and NBA teams getting better at scouting overseas players so the good ones are pretty much always going in the top 20-30 picks) you start to put the pieces of the puzzle together and understand why the hit rate on draft and stash picks has been so poor in recent years.
To illustrate this point, I’ve got another chart here. This one lists overseas players drafted since 2012 who were not stashed – they came right over and joined their NBA team immediately after being drafted:
| Player | Draft Year | Draft Slot | Pre-Draft Season | Outcome | Hit or Miss? |
| Victor Wembanyama | 2023 | 1 | Overseas | Franchise player, generational talent | Hit |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 2023 | 7 | Overseas | His NBA career is off to a very good start! | Hit |
| Rayan Rupert | 2023 | 43 | Overseas | Has struggled a bit but has gotten some decent playing time in his first couple years in NBA | TBD |
| Sidy Cissoko | 2023 | 44 | G League Ignite | Has done pretty much nothing in his first couple years since being drafted | TBD |
| Ousmane Dieng | 2022 | 11 | Overseas | Has been bad. Pretty much a bust. Been stuck in G league but some of that us probably b/c of how good OKC is | Miss |
| Dyson Daniels | 2022 | 8 | G League Ignite | Having a breakout season. Could be the MIP! | Hit |
| Jeremy Sochan | 2022 | 9 | NCAA | Has been a decent player so far | Hit |
| Nikola Jovic | 2022 | 27 | Overseas | Is carving out a decent NBA career as a role player | Hit |
| Moussa Diabaté | 2022 | 43 | NCAA | Now in his 3rd NBA season, landed with the Hornets and is carving out a decent role | Hit |
| Santi Aldama | 2021 | 30 | NCAA | Having a solid career so far as a role player | Hit |
| Franz Wagner | 2021 | 8 | NCAA | Star player in the NBA | Hit |
| Alperen Sengun | 2021 | 16 | Overseas | Star player in the NBA | Hit |
| Josh Giddey | 2021 | 6 | Overseas | Has been a good NBA player | Hit |
| Usman Garuba | 2021 | 23 | Overseas | Was in the league for 2 years, then got waived. Signed a 2-way for 1 season, and now back playing overseas | Miss |
| Killian Hayes | 2020 | 7 | Overseas | Bust | Miss |
| Aleksej Pokusevski | 2020 | 17 | Overseas | Spent a few years in the NBA. But struggled, didn’t get a second contract and is now back in Europe | Miss |
| Theo Maledon | 2020 | 34 | Overseas | Played 4 years in the NBA. Struggled. Got waived. Now back playing overseas | Miss |
| Sekou Doumbouya | 2019 | 15 | Overseas | Only played a couple years in the league before getting waived. Now back playing overseas | Miss |
| Luka Doncic | 2018 | 3 | Overseas | Wasn’t stashed. Top 5 player in the NBA | Hit |
| Dzanan Musa | 2018 | 29 | Overseas | Played 2 years for Nets, was bad. Went back overseas & has stayed there ever since | Miss |
| Moe Wagner | 2018 | 25 | NCAA | Has had a decent career. Got a pretty good sized contract in free agency this past summer | Hit |
| Elie Okobo | 2018 | 31 | Overseas | Only lasted 2 yrs in NBA – struggled, has been back in Europe ever since | Miss |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 2018 | 47 | Overseas | Has had a 7 year NBA career, decent role player | Hit |
| Frank Ntilikina | 2017 | 8 | Overseas | Wasn’t stashed. Was in NBA for a few years but struggled. Then went back overseas | Miss |
| Lauri Markannen | 2017 | 7 | NCAA | Wasn’t stashed. Started in NBA, has stayed there and is an all-star | Hit |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 2017 | 43 | Overseas | Not stashed. Year 1 was in G League. Has been solid NBA player ever since | Hit |
| Domantas Sabonis | 2016 | 11 | NCAA | Wasn’t stashed. Started in NBA, has stayed there and is an all-star | Hit |
| Georgios Papagiannis | 2016 | 13 | Overseas | Only lasted 2 yrs in NBA – struggled, got waived and has been back in Europe ever since | Miss |
| Ivica Zubac | 2016 | 32 | Overseas | Not stashed. Spent some time in G league early in career but other than that has been solid NBA player | Hit |
| Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot | 2016 | 24 | Overseas | Played 6 years in the league. Was a decent role player. Then went back overseas, where he still is now | Miss |
| Jakob Poeltl | 2016 | 9 | NCAA | Has had a good career as an NBA role player | Hit |
| Juancho Hernangomez | 2016 | 15 | Overseas | Was a decent NBA player for a few years but overall struggled, then returned to Europe | Miss |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 2015 | 4 | Overseas | Wasn’t stashed. Started in NBA, has stayed there and is an all-star | Hit |
| Mario Hezonja | 2015 | 5 | Overseas | Wasn’t stashed. Was in NBA for a few years, was bad. So went back overseas, has stayed there ever since | Miss |
| Dante Exum | 2014 | 5 | Overseas | Was in NBA for a few years. Struggled but some of that was due to injuries. Ended up in Europe. Now back in NBA in a small role | Miss |
| Jusuf Nurkic | 2014 | 16 | Overseas | In 11th NBA season. Has had solid career as a role player | Hit |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 2013 | 15 | Overseas | Wasn’t stashed. NBA Finals MVP and NBA MVP | Hit |
| Rudy Gobert | 2013 | 27 | Overseas | Wasn’t stashed. Started in NBA, has stayed there and is an all-star | Hit |
| Dennis Schroder | 2013 | 17 | Overseas | Has had a solid 12 year NBA career | Hit |
As you can see, the hit rate is much higher on overseas players who are not stashed. And most of the hits (especially in the past few years) have been players drafted in the top 20 – 30 picks.
At this point I’ll reiterate that it seems like NBA teams are starting to realize that the hit rate on 2nd round draft and stash picks is getting worse and worse. We’ve seen quite a few overseas 2nd round picks in recent years stay with their NBA team rather than being stashed. We’ve seen it with guys like Sidy Cissoko, Rayan Rupert, Gui Santos and Bobi Klintman. All guys who are from overseas and picked in the 2nd round so they could’ve been stashed. But their NBA team instead chose to develop them with their staff here in the US.
Another somewhat similar example is Luke Travers. Travers (from Australia) was a late 2nd round pick by the Cavs. He was stashed for 2 years. But then this season, Cleveland brought him stateside – not signing him to an NBA contract but instead signing him to a 2-way deal. So again, that speaks to NBA teams adjusting and trying to develop these guys more in-house, rather than having them develop overseas.
That might be part of the reason why the hit rate on 2nd round draft and stash picks has been so poor in recent years – but the hit rate has been higher on overseas players who are not stashed. Perhaps the players are getting better development with their NBA team – playing everyday in practice vs NBA-level talent, getting coached by NBA coaches. Being in an NBA weight room. Living the life of an NBA player. The style of play is also different in the NBA, compared to overseas. So by developing stateside, the player is able to get used to the NBA style of play quicker. Perhaps these things play a factor as well.
From the charts I posted in this piece, here’s another thing I’ll mention. The hit rate on mid-to-late 2nd round picks in general is incredibly low – at least with the international players I looked up. Out of the players I charted (all are overseas players, drafted since 2012) the hit rate is just 5% (2 out of 40). But if we filter that to only look at draft and stash players in the 44-60 range, the hit rate drops to just 2.5% (1 out of 39). If we go even later in the draft and look at just picks in the 48-60 range (and even if we include all overseas players since 2012, so including both draft and stash players and non-draft and stash overseas players) the hit rate is 0% (0 out of 33).
So, the hit rate is insanely low in recent years on overseas players drafted 44 or later and even worse if drafted 48 or later.
I think part of the reason for this is because when you get that late in the draft, some of the top players left on the board (perhaps guys like Austin Reaves and Sam Hauser) are getting with their agents and trying to not get drafted so they can be a free agent and have their pick of which NBA team they sign with – to put themself in the best position to succeed at the NBA level.
As a result, the top 5 or so undrafted free agents oftentimes are better than lots of the guys who get drafted in the 50-60 range. Look at how much better Sam Hauser (undrafted FA, signed by Boston in 2021) has turned out then Juhann Begarin (drafted 45th by Boston that same year). I’m not sure if there’s anything that can be done to fix this or improve it – maybe it is what it is.
One possible solution though is to trim the draft down from 60 picks to 45. I say this because the hit rate on picks in the 45 to 60 range (at least in recent years) has been insanely low. So why would we continue to add to the problem? Why have all these guys get drafted, only to have that draft pick end up failing and returning zero value? The NBA team suffers because they are spending all this time and resources to develop the player, only to have them fail. And the players are suffering because they are being put into a situation with such a high rate of failure.
Reducing the draft from 60 picks to 45 could help. But I don’t really see it happening – especially since expansion is coming soon. Rumor has it, the NBA is adding two more teams in the next few years. So if anything, the number of picks in the draft will increase in the near future.
Conclusion
The practice of drafting and stashing players is not completely dead – nor should it be. But it’s damn near close to extinction, in my opinion.
I think we need to either reduce the draft from 60 picks to 45 or make some changes to ensure that the players who are drafted in the 45-60 range have more of a fighting chance to succeed and make it in the league.
Expansion will help.
But also I think NBA teams (especially when it comes to their draft and stash guys) could do a better job of having a plan for all of their players drafted in the 45-60 range. It should be a comprehensive development plan, with a beginning (draft night), middle and end (day 1 of them contributing for their NBA team). The plan should be detailed, it should have checkpoints and a list of people (coaches, trainers, etc.) whose job it is to do specific tasks to help get that player to the end goal.
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