Intro
Wings are probably the most coveted position in the modern NBA, partly because you can play three (or more) of them on the floor at a time without being undersized, partly because of the versatility they can offer – on both ends of the floor.
We’ve seen more wings get drafted in recent years than in any other position. Nailing these picks is critical for NBA front offices. It’s even more crucial when drafting in the top 10 (or even top 5) picks.
And if you’re drafting a wing in the top 5 or 10 picks, you’re probably hoping he’ll be able to score the basketball – really well. If it’s a top 5 pick, you’re hoping to draft a guy who can be a good 1st/2nd scoring option for your team.
Sure, it’s nice if the guy you’re drafting is an elite defender. Still, those types of prospects (wings who are elite defenders but have limitations as scorers/creators) typically go later in the draft (like outside of the lottery) and end up being role players rather than stars that you’d like to grab in the top 5 or 10 picks.
So, how do we identify which wing prospects to bet on with those valuable picks?
Film vs Data
I know there are some debates about whether draft scouting should be more about watching the film (eye test) or if scouts should lean on data (analytics). I’m a firm believer that both have their place.
There’s a reason why NBA teams, overseas pro teams, and even NCAA teams employ full-time data/analytics personnel to conduct research and crunch numbers. But there is still value in watching the film, too.
With that being said, this article will focus primarily on data. Eye test truthers, don’t hate me!
Diving into the Numbers
One of the main points I’d like to make here is that FTr (Free Throw Rate) and Unassisted Made Field Goals at the Rim Per 40 Mins are two stats that seem to have a very strong correlation to predicting how good a prospect will be at scoring basketball at the NBA level.
Let’s take a look at some data that will help illustrate this. This data set shows each player’s numbers during their freshman season. All players were OAD (One and Dones). For Jalen Green, it’s his G League Ignite Season. And for Bailey, it’s his first six games at Rutgers.
The first thing I want to point out on the chart is that (for the most part) the players who have established themselves as potent, consistent scorers at the NBA level had an FTr of at least 31 – from RJ Barrett on up.
And if we look at the Unassisted Makes at Rim / 40 Mins column, the magic number there seems to be 2. For the most part, the players who had 2 or higher in that category are the ones who have turned out to be consistently good scorers in the NBA. Players who had a score of less than 1.2 in this category have pretty much all failed to become good scorers in the league.
At this point, I will go ahead and address the elephant in the room (lol). No, I am not as high on Ace Bailey as a prospect compared to many folks out there on the Interweb. Out of the 27 wings charted above, Bailey is 26th in Ftr, last in Unassisted makes at Rim Per 40 Mins, and last in Assist %.
Does this mean NBA execs should avoid drafting Bailey at all costs? No. Let’s not get carried away here.
But does this mean there are some serious red flags with Bailey as a prospect, and it might not be a good idea to draft him in the top 3 (or even top 5) picks? Absolutely.
After all, on the chart, we see quite a few players who have struggled at the NBA level (Knox, Reddish, Baldwin Jr., Bates, McGowens, etc.) but were better as freshmen in these categories than Bailey has been.
I see quite a few people hyping Bailey up as a potential number-one pick. Some folks are saying, “He’s better than Flagg—he should go no. 1!” Pretty much everyone has Bailey in the top three of their big boards and mock drafts.
However, there are some indicators here that NBA teams should think long and hard about drafting Bailey with a high (top 3 or perhaps even top 5) pick.
Another thing I hear from folks in draft circles is, “Oh, but Ace is so young. He’s just an 18-year-old freshman. He can work on his handle and improve at creating space and pressuring the rim.”
Well, the data suggests otherwise. The data tells me that OAD (One and Done) prospects with poor FTr and poor Unassisted Makes at the Rim / 40 Mins numbers (typically) do not become good scorers at the NBA level.
Ace Bailey is a good shooter, but the NBA game is evolving. If an NBA team sees a guy who can shoot the ball well but isn’t a threat to put the ball on the floor and take it to the basket, they’ll extend their defense and run that player off the line, negating much of that player’s shooting ability.
Sure, there are some players who are outstanding shooters but are limited drivers. But those are typically role players who come off the bench (Sam Hauser, Luke Kennard, etc.). Not guys, you would draft in the top 5.
The other line I hear from folks sometimes is, “Oh, but he’ll be better at driving the ball with NBA spacing.”
I don’t buy that. Zion had no problem driving the ball to the basket in college. Neither did Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Kevin Durant, Brandon Miller, Lauri Markannen, etc. Look at how much higher the numbers are for those guys than they are for Bailey in terms of FTr and Unassisted Makes at the Rim / 40 Mins.
Ziaire Williams, Jett Howard, BJ Boston, Patrick Baldwin Jr, Cam Reddish, Kevin Knox. They all had poor numbers in those two categories. Did the NBA spacing help them? Nope. And those guys were all better in those categories as freshmen than Bailey has been so far.
The one exception here seems to be Devin Booker. Booker (who, of course, is a perennial all-star, arguably the best player on a team that went to the NBA finals, and an Olympic champion) is very close to Bailey in terms of FTr and Unassisted Makes at the Rim / 40 Mins. Booker’s assist percentage was also pretty low.
I know what you’re thinking, “If Booker could do it, so can Bailey!”
Well, not so fast. First off, Booker’s freshman season at Kentucky is now 10 years ago. That’s a long time ago. If you can only come up with one example that proves your point, and that one example was 10 years ago, it’s not a very strong case. Also, Booker’s numbers are higher in both categories; his assist % and BPM were more than double what Bailey’s is currently at. So clearly, Booker’s numbers are better. And Booker was playing for Kentucky during an era where we were seeing year after year that Kentucky players were underwhelming in college but then dominated in the NBA – to the point where Kentucky players’ stats between 2014 and 2020 are nearly meaningless.
I’d also add that while it’s possible that Bailey ends up being a 6’9″ version of Devin Booker, the odds of that happening seem pretty low. I mean, out of the 26 players on the chart (who aren’t Bailey), there’s only 1 of them who had similar numbers to Bailey in terms of FTr and unassisted makes at the rim / 40 mins (while also having a reasonably low assist %) and ended up being an all-star. 1 out of 26. Those don’t seem like great odds to me.
I’d also like to point out the assist percentage column. Among the 27 players on the chart, Bailey is last in assist percentage. Playing the game with feel, vision, and unselfishness is one of the hardest things for players to improve upon once they get to the NBA. You rarely see players who are weak in this facet of the game show dramatic improvement once they get to the league.
The players with an assist % of under 10: Durant, Markannen, Bailey, Bates, Knox, McGowens, Wiggins, GG Jackson, Hendricks, Gradey Dick. Most of these guys have struggled in the NBA. The only ones who have consistently shown they can produce are KD, Markannen, Wiggins, and perhaps Gradey Dick. Wiggins and Dick are role players – both guys probably worthy of a top 10 pick (with hindsight) but not top 5 pick-worthy players. Then you have KD and Markannen – one of arguably the greatest scorers to ever touch a basketball (so you don’t mind the low assist %), and the other is an elite shooter and good driver at 7’0″. Ace Bailey is not 7’0″ and he’s not nearly the driver that Markannen is.
KD, Markannen, and Wiggins all put up much better driving numbers (FTr and Unassisted Makes at Rim / 40 Mins) than Bailey did. Gradey Dick’s numbers across the board are pretty close to Bailey’s. But Dick did have about double the assist % compared to Bailey, and Dick did that with a much lower usage %. And Dick had a much higher BPM. Bailey is more athletic and has more defensive upside. Bailey is also a little bit taller. So Bailey could be a slightly taller, more athletic, somewhat better defender version of Gradey Dick but with less feel/IQ. That could be worth a pick in the 5-10 range. Top 3? Probably not.
But one of the main points I’m trying to make here is the combination of the low FTr, low unassisted makes at rim / 40 mins, and extremely low assist percentage. Put that all together, and it’s a pretty significant red flag for me—especially if we’re talking about a top 3 – 5 pick.
Next, I’d like to post a couple of other charts. That way, we’re pulling more data to conduct a more thorough analysis, pulling data from different sources, too:
This chart shows the % of half-court shots that each prospect attempted at the rim:
As you can see, there’s a pretty big gap between Brandon Miller at 21.9% and Cam Reddish at 15.4%. For the most part, the players from Miller on up (20% and higher) are the guys who became good scorers at the NBA level, whereas the guys from Reddish on down (under 20%) are the ones who have struggled to score the basketball consistently in the NBA.
To be fair, Bailey has only played in six games this season. We don’t want to go too overboard with a six-game sample size. That’s why (especially this early in the season when we’re talking about a freshman) it’s helpful to also look at some data from when the player was in high school.
As we see in the chart above, Bailey did have a respectable number of shots at the rim last season in high school. He’s fifth out of the 20 players listed. But his rim attempts per game number last season was lower than Cooper Flagg’s; it’s lower than Dylan Harper’s, VJ Edgecombe’s, and Ian Jackson’s.
Overall, looking at this last chart doesn’t make me feel great about taking Bailey in the top 3. But it does ease my concerns to some extent and makes me feel like he’s at least worth a top 10 pick—possibly a top 5.
However, college stats are more important than high school stats. And when watching the film of Bailey’s high school games last season, it does seem like that rim attempts per game number for him is a tad inflated due to how much his high school team fed him the ball every trip down the floor – he shot the ball seemingly a million times a game in some of his high school games so his rim attempts per game number were bound to be reasonably high. Plus, he’s 6’9″, and in most of the high school games I watched, he was towering over the opposing players, making it easier to get shots up near the rim. We’re seeing now that Bailey is having a harder time pressuring the rim vs. taller (and stronger, more athletic) players at the D-I college level.
Wrapping it Up
The bottom line is that there are some red flags with Ace Bailey. Most everyone right now has him ranked as a top-three pick, but I think there’s a fairly good chance that if a team drafts him that high, they’ll end up regretting it.
People are calling Bailey the next KD or Tracy McGrady. But honestly, I think he’s probably closer to Jett Howard, Emoni Bates, or GG Jackson than he is to KD or T-Mac.
That said, I do think we need more data. The other guys on these charts had a full season of college ball. Bailey has only played in 6 games for Rutgers after missing the first couple of games with an injury. So, let’s see what happens over the rest of the season.
Either way, I hope folks reading this will at least think more critically moving forward when evaluating these wing scorer prospects. We should dig deeper to really try and figure out what skills/traits/metrics to look for to help us determine which prospects will hit, which will miss, and how good they will be in the NBA—which can be tricky to do when evaluating an 18-year-old freshman.
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