Before the college basketball season, on most NBA draft boards, the consensus top 5 was pretty clear: first you’d have Cooper Flagg, then you’d rank Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe and Nolan Traore in some order.
It seems like with the NCAA season tipping off two weeks ago, that consensus has came into question.
First of all, Ace Bailey has become the most polarising prospect in next year’s draft. For some, Ace has the potential to challenge Cooper Flagg at the top of the draft board with his incredible combination of size and shotmaking ability. Others point out that Bailey struggles to create clean looks, that his handle is not there and he lives on a tough shot diet.
Talking about shooting, Saint Quentin’s Nolan Traore has been off to a pretty rough first couple of months, especially shooting the ball which has been the top concern about him for some time right now.
In the French league, Traore has been shooting a pretty abysmal 34% from the field. Overall, things are a bit better in the FIBA Champions League, but he’s been struggling in Europe as well lately, with the stats being inflated by a great game against Kolossos to begin the group stage.
VJ Edgecombe of Baylor has also struggled shooting the ball, especially from the perimeter. His out-of-this-world athletic abilities and weak side help defense are apparent, but as an offensive player, Edgecombe sits at a pretty uncomfortable intersection where he is basically an undersized wing without the ability to create for himself or others, while at the same time not being able to knock down shots.
With that being said, here are the four players that have impressed in the early stages of the season and could play their way up the draft boards.
Egor Demin, BYU, 6’9″ G
Demin has been a revelation since arriving at BYU and it’s becoming more and more difficult to keep him out of the top 5, despite BYU’s relatively easy schedule so far.
His player profile is super tantalizing. At BYU, Demin has been an offensive engine with remarkable positional size. He’s been the P&R maestro for his team, posting a 38.6% assist rate throughout 3 games, and Synergy ranking him in the 82nd percentile in P&R situations.
There are layers to the passing game. With his frame, Demin can see over most people and throw passes that other guard’s can’t. His court awareness is next level as Demin is able to hit his teammates all over the floor.
The first clip is one of my favorite plays of Demin so far. A brilliant misdirection to guide his teammate from one corner to another and gathering defensive attention on that side, before quickly hitting a rolling teammate for an easy layup.
Demin’s rim pressure numbers have been awesome as well and he’s been attacking the rim in P&R situations and he’s been setting up teammates as well. The 86.7% rim scoring and 74.4% true shooting will surely come down as BYU faces better competition. TS% is also aided by Demin knocking down threes at an impressive rate so far.
Though Demin’s greatest advantages are on offense, his defensive flashes have been pretty good so far. He’s good at reading the passing lanes and has the frame to be a capable weak side defender.
Kasparas Jakučionis, Illinois, 6’6″ G
Jakučionis is another guard that has been on the rise at the beginning of college basketball season. He has impressed the llinois coaching staff pretty much since first stepping onto the court at Champaign, with Brad Underwood feeling confident in giving the keys to his team to the 18 year old Lithuanian.
In large part, he has delivered so far, posting some mind-boggling stats along the way. He has a 40.8% assist rate and an insane 200% free throw rate, which, after three buy games, is both impressive and worrisome. Jakučionis has demonstrated an uncanny ability to draw fouls so far. That skillset is extremely desirable in the NBA environment, but it’s been so skewed that it also raises questions about Jakučionis ability to get his own shot as he has only taken 10 field goals so far this season.
Generally, Jakučionis did a pretty good job at attacking the rim in FIBA competitions, and coach Underwood noted that he’s not used to playing against zone defense, so I’m of the opinion that he’s eventually going to be fine.
With Jakučionis, the main attraction is his blend of size, developed frame and incredible playmaking ability. He’s ranked in the 87th percentile in p&r situations so far by Synergy, which is, first and foremost, is a testament to his court awareness and ability to make passes into some narrow passing windows.
Illinois have some tougher competition coming up in the form of Alabama and Arkansas, so it will be interesting to see how he stacks up against these teams. Jakučionis needs to find a better balance between setting up teammates and scoring himself, also, his turnover numbers have been on the higher end. If he can overcome these obstacles, then sky is the limit for him.
Kon Knueppel, Duke, 6’7 G/F
Though Kon Knueppel came to Duke with a reputation of a shooter, he actually hasn’t shot that great in his first four games, especially struggling in Champions Classic against Kentucky where he shot just 5-20. So far this season he’s posting 55.7% true shooting, which is neither great, nor particularly terrible.
Still, I personally came away more impressed than disappointed in Kon’s performance versus Kentucky.
Knueppel, like the players we discussed before, possesses good positional size. He’s a below average athlete, but that doesn’t stop him from being a good advantage creator. Against Kentucky, he created all kinds of shots for himself, he was not afraid to drive to the left and showed that he can really get to the rim, despite playing at an athletic disadvantage.
One of the reasons why – Knueppel is a great movement shooter and he leverages that shot into making plays for himself and others. His p&r creation flashes are pretty good, Knueppel can definitely hit rolling teammates, especially when he comes of pindowns, staggers or zipper cuts.
The Duke guard/forward is very good at using his body to create space for himself and has a low-key impressive handle with a low center of gravity, it’s just that against Kentucky, the shots were not falling, though most of them were very much good attempts.
In the longer term, Knueppel’s top-end potential will be defined by his defense. He’s pretty long, but does not have the lateral nor vertical ability to come to his aid.
Labaron Philon, Alabama, 6’4″ G
Out of the 4 players I’ve discussed in this article, Philon is probably the biggest stretch to go top 5, but he really turned some heads in the Purdue game, where I thought he was Bama’s best player.
Philon is a prospect for those who love rim pressure – he’s a relentless downhill driver who has a trick or two with his twitchy hesitation moves and misdirections. Despite being right handed, Philon feels comfortable driving and finishing with his left.
Philon is a really good passer which helps to keep help defenders on their heels. In his first few games, the Alabama guard has a team-best 30.3% assist rate, which is quite an achievement considering that he plays a supporting role to Mark Sears, one of college basketball’s great advantage creators.
Purdue were really trying to challenge Philon on the defensive end of the floor, especially in the first half. For a while, Philon struggled navigating the tough ball screens set by Purdue’s bigs, but he would usually put up decent recovery efforts. Advanced stats show that he has had a positive impact on both offensive and defensive end of the floor.
Having struggled with his perimeter shooting, Philon came to life against Purdue and at one point was the only player to hit a thee for Bama. Shooting consistency will definitely be something to monitor throughout the season.
With Philon, my bet is that he will keep improving and revealing more and more layers to his game as the season progresses. He has already come a long way in just a few games, from a freshman backing up one of the best guard lineups in the country to a player that can’t be kept off the floor in a massive away matchup. It’s likely that in a few weeks we’ll see Philon as an integral piece at one of the best teams in college basketball. Throughout the season, it will be crucial for Philon to get more and more on ball reps.
The Center Hub 
Leave a comment