By: On Ball Creator
Intro
At this point, I think pretty much everyone who follows the NBA draft knows who Ben Saraf is. He played a full season in the Israeli pro league at age 17 during the 23-24 season. Then during the summer of 2024 he won MVP of the FIBA U18 EuroBasket tournament, which included prospects like Nolan Traore, Kasparas Jakucionis, Hugo Gonzalez and Noa Essengue. He’s now 12 games into his season with Ratiopharm ULM (13 games if you count the exhibition vs the Portland Trailblazers) as their starting point guard.
Yet Saraf still seems to be underrated in draft circles. I’m seeing quite a few mock drafts and big boards that have Saraf ranked outside of the lottery. The consensus top 5 picks are (in some order) Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe, Nolan Traore. But if we look back at previous draft classes, the guys who are the consensus top 5 picks prior to the NCAA season tipping off pretty much never end up being the top 5 picks on draft night – or (more importantly) they don’t end up being the top 5 players from that draft class when we look back and do a re-draft 5+ years later.
For example, the consensus top 5 picks prior to the 2017-2018 season were Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley, Michael Porter Jr, Deandre Ayton and Mo Bamba. Prior to the 2018-2019 season it was RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Nassir Little, Cam Reddish and Romeo Langford.
Bottom line – Flagg, Bailey, Edgecombe, Harper and Traore will likely not be the top 5 players from this class, when it’s all said and done.
Question is, which player could crack that top 5 who isn’t currently there? Ben Saraf is definitely a candidate.
It’s still very early in the season, but at this point I think Saraf is a top 10 pick with a case for going in the top 5. I could see an argument for taking him as high as 4, or even 3.
Playmaking
One stat worth monitoring over the rest of the season is Saraf’s assist %. It’s currently at 37.1. Just a 12 game sample but in Barttorvik (which goes back to 2008), they have no record of a high major freshman who’s 6’5″ or taller with an assist % of 35+. He’s not a freshman or playing high major college basketball of course, but he’s freshman aged & playing competition that’s as good (or better) than high major college ball.
If we include overseas players, Lamelo Ball (36.1) and Josh GIddey (36.3) are two other prospects who had an assist % of 35+ while being 6’5” or taller. Good company to be in for Saraf! And Saraf’s assist % (through 13 games) is slightly higher than theirs, at 37.1.
If we lower the height requirement to players 6’4” and taller, there’s only 1 player who fits the query – Markelle Fultz – the no. 1 pick in the 2017 draft. And if we lower the assist % threshold to 30% and set a turnover % remove players with a crazy high turnover %, these are the prospects since 2010 who meet the criteria:
Let’s look at some film of Saraf’s playmaking.
This is such a high level play. He’s up top, surveying the defense and initiating the offense. The big slips the screen. Then Saraf manipulates the defense – he baits the defender to come out and play him, which allows for his roll man to be open. Saraf waits till just the right time (he’s patient, lets the play develop) and throws the bounce pass to his roll man at just the right time as the passing window opens up. He leads his teammate to the basket perfectly with the pass, leading to a dunk.
I really like this play too, where again we see Saraf manipulate the defense. First we see his teammate out on the perimeter has picked up his dribble in no man’s land so Saraf really needs to help him out and get open. Saraf’s defender is defending him really tightly though, so Saraf fakes like he’s going out towards halfcourt, then cuts hard towards the basket, leaving his defender in the dust and giving his teammate someone to pass to. Then Saraf has a clear path towards the paint. He’s got an open teammate under the basket but a defender is standing right in the way – between Saraf and his open teammate so there’s no way to get him the ball. This is where Saraf manipulates the defense. He freezes the defender, waits a split second to bait the defender to come at him to prevent the easy shot near the rim for Saraf. Once the defender commits to Saraf, that creates a passing window for Saraf to make an easy bounce pass to his teammate for the layup.
Here’s some more clips that show Saraf’s playmaking ability. There’s some more skip passes to the corner shooter, more manipulating of the defense and running pick n roll:
Scoring
The scary thing about Saraf (well, one of them) is that his upside as a scorer is perhaps just as good as his playmaking. His scoring ability was on full display at the FIBA U18 EuroBasket tournament this past summer. Saraf averaged 28 PPG across seven games. He had a 40 point game – twice! Plus a 31 point game, a 26 point game and a 23 point game, all while going against the best European players in his age group.
When looking closer at the stats of his most recent competitions, his assist numbers have been pretty consistent but have been steadily improving. He posted 5.9 assists per 40 mins during the 23-24 season in the Israeli pro league, followed by 6.4 assists per 40 mins at FIBA U18, and currently so far during his first 13 games (including the exhibition game vs Portland) he’s at 6.9 assists per 40 mins.
While the assist numbers have been consistent and steadily improving, his scoring numbers are a little bit different. Saraf put up 17.1 points per 40 mins in the 23-24 season in Israel (a very respectable number for a 17 year old kid playing in a top 10 pro league vs grown men) but that number skyrocketed to 34.0 points per 40 mins at FIBA U18, and then went back down to 22.7 points per 40 mins so far this season with Ratiopharm ULM.
My take? He’s a year older and he’s gotten better which is why the scoring went up from 17.1 last season to 22.7 this season, despite playing in a slightly tougher league this season. The outlier number is the 34 points per 40 mins at FIBA U18, but that’s the sample where he was facing weaker competition – he was facing kids his age, rather than all grown men in a pro league. But still, the fact that he dominated his peers to the extent that he did and put up those types of scoring numbers at FIBA (while still putting up high assist numbers) shows you what type of scoring upside he has.
It’s not far-fetched that Saraf could one day average 18 points and 8 assists a game in the NBA.
Now, let’s look at some film of how Saraf scores the basketball.
One thing to notice in this next group of clips is how Saraf can score the basketball, both on and off the ball. Off the ball, we see he has the ability to knock down catch, and shoot 3s, and he’s an effective cutter. On the ball, he can hit the 3, score in the mid-range, or take it all the way to the rim.
Saraf is also dangerous in transition. So he’s essentially a 4-level scorer, with the 4th level of course being in transition.
In terms of three-point shooting, Saraf shot 36% during FIBA U18, and through 13 games this season (including the exhibition vs. Portland), he’s improved that to 38% (despite facing tougher competition), which are very impressive numbers for an 18-year-old kid. Considering he handles the ball a lot, so many of his 3s are off the dribble and/or self-created.
Defense
At this point, you can tell that Saraf’s upside is very high as both a scorer and a passer. Guys who can do both of those things at such a high level at age 18 and have good positional size don’t grow on trees.
But wait, there’s more! Saraf is also a capable defender. Defense is another area where we have seen a fair amount of difference between his pro league film (last season and this season) and his FIBA film compared to other European teenagers. The defense at FIBA U18 was very good—so good that he was in the conversation for best defender in the tournament (while also scoring 28 PPG).
He hasn’t been as good defensively when matched up with grown men pros. He hasn’t been bad defensively at the pro. He was just not as good as he was vs European teenagers, which is to be expected.
Some of his defensive lapses (like in the exhibition game vs Portland, where he had to guard Scoot Henderson) give us an indication of his floor defensively. Meanwhile, the defense he showed at FIBA U18 (where he was a menace and looked borderline elite defensively) gives us an indication of his ceiling. More than likely, he’ll be somewhere in the middle at the NBA level. And keep in mind, of course, he’s still just 18 years old, so he still has quite a bit of development to come.
Let’s look at some defensive clips, starting with a play where Saraf shows shades of Manu Ginobili and Derrick White – pressures the ball out on the perimeter, stays with the play, and gets up near the rim to swat the shot away:
Areas for Improvement
We’ve now covered playmaking, 4-level scoring, cutting, and defense. Some of his stats really jump off the page (the assist percentage so far this season is staggering, and he’s been very good). At this point, you might be thinking, “Wow! Saraf definitely looks like a top-five pick!” Well, it’s not all sunshine and roses.
One area Saraf needs to work on is his ball security. His turnover percentage has been kind of high, and when you look at the film, there are some fairly careless turnovers here and there, which are somewhat concerning—especially for a guy who (to reach his ceiling) will need to operate with the ball in his hands a lot. However, turnover issues are pretty common among young (age 17-19) high-usage ball handlers, so this is not a glaring concern.
The more significant concern might be Saraf’s physical profile. While he is 6’6″ (in shoes), which is a good positional size, his wingspan of 6’7.5″ is modest at best. Also, his maximum vertical leap is just 31.5″. His time in the lane agility drill and ¾ court sprint were all numbers that you typically see from a big man – they were poor numbers for a guard prospect. Just looking at those numbers and the wingspan (from 2024 Basketball Without Borders), one might think he’s got an uphill battle to be a top-10 pick – especially in a draft class with this much talent at the top of the board.
However, the film tells a different story. When I watch the film, I see him getting above the rim on quite a few dunks, and I see him getting above the rim to block shots. I see him flipping his hips and showing good quickness/agility when defending people. The measurements and athletic testing (while they do carry some weight) don’t tell the whole story. Additionally, Zaccharie Risacher and Tidjane Salaun both tested poorly prior to the 2024 draft in terms of athletic test numbers (Risacher had a poor wingspan, too), yet Risacher was the number 1 pick, and Salaun went 6th overall. Lamelo Ball and Josh Giddey are both questionable athletes as well – so is Tyrese Haliburton (another guard who’s 6’5″ or taller with excellent playmaking chops and good scoring ability).
The other concern with Saraf is that he’s trying to make it to the NBA, and the one game we saw him play against an actual NBA team was very much a mixed bag. While he had some nice flashes on offense that game, he had some poor turnovers, some issues holding up defensively, and a couple of possessions where he drove the ball in and put up ill-advised shots against elite rim protector Donovan Clingan, who swatted them away. Saraf looked a bit overmatched at times.
To be fair, it’s hard to ding Saraf very much for that performance because it’s not like he was much worse than all of the other 2025 draft prospects vs an NBA team. Saraf (and Ratiopharm ULM teammate Noa Essengue) are the only guys in this draft class who played against the NBA competition. So, we don’t have anything to compare Saraf’s performance to when it comes to the other prospects in this class besides Essengue. And again, Saraf did have some good things in the game vs Portland – such as shooting 3 for 4 from 3 – from the NBA three-point line.
Role Projection
Is Saraf a 1 or a 2? I think he is more than likely a 1, given the crazy high assist percentage numbers, which (at his size and age) we’ve really only seen from Lamelo and Giddey. When looking at his film during the 23-24 season, the 24-25 season, and FIBA U18, Saraf plays the 1 most of the time—but he does play off-ball at the 2 at times as well.
Saraf has played a decent amount at the 2. He’s also a good cutter and an off-ball shooter. So, he could potentially play as a 2 in the NBA—he has enough size for it.
The versatility of being able to play the 1 or the 2 will only help him in the NBA and make him an even more attractive prospect to NBA teams. If a team already has a primary PG, fine – slot him in as the secondary ball handler (kind of like how Indiana uses Andrew Nembhard). If the team needs a primary PG, that’s fine. Hand him the keys like the Hornets did with Lamelo.
More and more teams in the league are deploying multiple ball handlers on the floor at the same time, which makes them harder to defend. You can never have enough guys like Saraf on your squad.
Defensively, Saraf projects as a guy who should be able to hold up pretty well, defending most 1-3’s in the league. Obviously, guys like Doncic, SGA, and Steph Curry will be a challenge—they are for any defender. But overall, he should be able to hold his own and eventually be a neutral defender with the upside to be a plus defender with the right coaching and work ethic.
Wrapping it Up
If you’re still reading, thanks! I know lots of people say to keep these articles brief, but there’s not much else to say. Check Saraf out if you haven’t yet—he’s a very good player and fun to watch. I’m sure you’ll be hearing about him more as the season goes on and as we get closer to the 2025 draft.
The consensus top 5 prospects are getting most of the hype. But history tells us that at least 1 or 2 other players outside of the consensus top 5 will end up in the top 5 of a re-draft 5+ years from now. Gun to my head, I’m picking Saraf to be that guy.
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