By: OnBallCreator
As we get the 2024-2025 basketball season started, Paul McNeil might be the most underrated prospect in the 2025 draft class. 

In a recent aggregate mock draft that compiled picks from six mainstream mocks (including ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and USA Today), 59 players were selected. 

Paul McNeil was not one of them. 

However, I think an argument could be made that McNeil is a lottery-caliber prospect. 

Now, let’s unpack that. 

Shot Creation

When we look around the league and look at who many of the standout players are, they’re shot creators. Guys who are comfortable with the ball in their hands can put it on the floor and make a play – make something out of nothing – and put the ball in the basket. 

Tatum, Brown, Doncic, SGA, Trae, Steph, Harden, Kyrie, Mitchell, Booker, KD, Ingram, Dame, Giannis, Kawhi, PG13, Haliburton, Siakam, Brunson, Derozan, Jimmy Butler, Ant Edwards, Beal, Banchero, etc. These guys all have that trait. 

Even guys who are more secondary creators like Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Williams, Benedict Mathurin, Franz Wagner, Jaime Jaquez, Dejounte Murray, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Middleton, McCollum, and Brandin Podziemski – they all have a decent bag for creating their own shot. 

I’m obviously not saying that McNeil is as good as all those guys. I’m just saying that he has that trait as well. 

The ability to handle the ball, make plays with the ball, create shots, hit off-the-dribble jumpers, pressure the rim, and create for others is extremely valuable in the modern NBA. We’re seeing more and more NBA teams deploy multiple ball handlers, multiple shot creators, and multiple guys who can score off the dribble, which makes them harder to defend and better equipped to play five-out offense. 

Of course, these pre-draft prospects are not finished products. A lot of a player’s development happens after they get to the NBA. Like McNeil, many of the top prospects haven’t even played college ball yet, so they will develop more in college. 

However, I think that the shot creation “bag” stuff is probably the hardest thing to develop after you get to the league. You look at the list of guys I named earlier who are shot creators. Most (if not all) of them were good shot creators as pre-draft prospects. Nembhard had really slick handles and a smooth mid-range pull-up in college. Jalen Williams had a bag in college. So did Banchero, Tatum, Middleton, McCollum, etc. 

But the guys who are mainly just catch-and-shoot guys in the league? Guys like Korver, Duncan Robinson, Hauser, Joe Harris, Ingles, Reggie Bullock, Tim Hardaway Jr, Grimes, Huerter, Torrey Craig, Jae Crowder, Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neal, PJ Tucker. These guys a) typically stay catch-and-shoot guys in the league rather than developing their bag significantly, and b) typically are lower-ceiling guys who are, at best, a 5th starter. 

It’s easier (and more common) for guys to develop into good shooters in the league. But it’s more challenging (and less common) to develop handles and shot-creation ability in the league. 

So, that’s a good baseline for a guy like McNeil, who is already a good shot creator as an 18-year-old kid coming out of high school, especially for a guy who also has good size at 6’5″/6’6″ and good shooting touch. 

Now, let’s take a look at some of the shot creation and shot-making. 

In this first group of clips, we’re seeing McNeil knock down 3’s off the catch and off the dribble. We’re seeing some crazy range on his three-ball, and we’re seeing him hit 3s over a tight contest. We’re also seeing him pressure the rim with strong drives to the basket, scoring a couple of times against Drake Powell (a 5-star recruit for UNC). We’re seeing movement shooting, the ability to finish through contact, and the athleticism to make a quick second jump. Not to mention some craft with the euro-step move. 

Next, let’s take a look at what McNeil can do in the mid-range. First, we see him getting separated from his defender and showing some nice touches on the floater. In the next play, he smoothly puts the ball between his legs and gets the defender leaning right so he can dribble to his left, creating enough separation to rise up and hit the mid-range jumper. Then we see McNeil get in his bag, use some craft to throw the defender off just a little bit, take a little bump from the defender, and are still able to rise up and hit that middy.

Did I mention McNeil dropped 71 points in a game last season?

Next, we’ve got some more mid-range scoring. This time, McNeil shows shades of MJ/Kobe/SGA on the smooth turnaround jumper. The defender swipes at the ball (but misses it), and McNeil senses the defender swiping on his left side, so he immediately turns to the right, rises up, and hits the shot with a smooth release and reasonable body control.

I really like how quick and decisive he is making his move here. He catches the pass, and in the blink of an eye, he’s already driving hard. He sells the move – and starts out driving so hard that the defender thinks he’s taking it all the way to the rim. This creates a ton of space, so he’s able to make the step-back jumper. This is some elite stuff at the high school level:

Here’s a few more clips that showcase McNeil’s ability as a shot creator. Nice combination of drives to the basket and 3’s.

Okay, at this point, I’m sure you can tell that McNeil has a pretty advanced “bag” as a shot creator, especially for an 18-year-old who has yet to play a college game. Now, let’s dive into the other parts of his game. 

Playmaking 

Scoring is great (and at this point, we’ve shown McNeil score on all three levels), but having the vision, feel, and unselfishness to also be a playmaker for others is super important as well – to become an even better player at the next level. 

Let’s look at some of McNeil’s playmaking. In the first couple of clips, we see McNeil show his ability to grab a loose ball or rebound and have the court sense to know that a) transition baskets are easier to make than those in the half-court and b) he’s got an open teammate racing up the floor so he makes some lightning quick hit ahead passes.

After that, we’ve got some clips where McNeil is double-teamed or pressured in the backcourt but is able to keep his cool, see the entire floor, and throw some lasers to the open man. We also see McNeil using his gravity effectively as he drives, collapses the defense, and kicks it out to the open shooter. McNeil can also push it up the floor with pace and make a live dribble pass to the open man. 

Defense 

From the film I have seen, McNeil is a good defender but not an elite one. He does a decent enough job of guarding his man. He’s also an active help defender who keeps his head up and actively hunts steals, blocks, and loose ball pickups – while not being so aggressive in help defense that he leaves his man open. Let’s take a look:

Areas for Improvement 

As you can see, there’s a lot to like in McNeil’s game. There are some weaknesses, though. His handle is a little bit loose at times, and he tends to bring the ball up too high when dribbling, which, of course, makes it easier for the defender to steal or knock it away.

Shot selection is sometimes an issue for McNeil as well. He can force shots at times and settle for jumpers rather than attacking the basket. Some of that is due to decision-making, but some of it is due to limitations with his handle, while some of it is limitations with his burst/athleticism. 

If McNeil struggles to pressure the rim this season for NC State and has to be mainly just a jump shooter, his shooting will have to be really good. Otherwise, he might not be ready yet to enter the draft—he’ll have to return for a sophomore season. Of course, that’s perfectly fine! There are tons of good players in the NBA right now who were not OAD (one and done). 

His defense is good but not great. His positional size is decent but not great. While I can see him being able to operate as a secondary ball handler, I don’t see him being a true point guard. And for a wing, he is kind of small. 

So he could end up being a wing without great size and without great athleticism. He’s a good shooter but not an elite one. Because of that, if I’m McNeil I am studying tons of Devin Booker film. Booker kind of fits a similar profile. Booker was a highly touted prospect coming out of HS. He slid in the draft a little bit because of some of the limitations we’ve touched on with McNeil, plus he was a good but not great college player. Yet Booker has developed into arguably a top-10 player in the league. 

If I’m McNeil, I’m also studying other shot creators who lack elite athleticism and are good but not elite shooters – guys like SGA, Doncic, and Derozan. 

McNeil has things to work on, but the potential is there to be a top 10-15 player from the 2025 draft class. 

Role at NC State?

Another question is, what will his role be at NC State? How much usage will he get? With the departures of DJ Burns, DJ Horne, and Casey Morsel, most of the Wolfpack offense from last season is gone. Sure, they could use a shot creator like McNeil, who dropped 71 in a game last season, right? 

I’m sure that is part of the reason McNeil chose NC State. He probably saw an opportunity to come in and contribute right away. But reports I’m reading say that McNeil is not expected to be a starter—but he is expected to get rotation minutes. 

I could be wrong, but I think McNeil is too talented, and the Wolfpack will need scoring punch so badly that it’ll be hard to keep him off the floor. I think this might be a situation like Malaki Branham a couple of years ago, where he starts off the season by coming off the bench and then gets more and more minutes as the season goes on. Or perhaps a situation like Scottie Barnes and Reed Sheppard, where he comes off the bench for most of the season but still gets enough playing time to be a high draft pick. 

Wrapping it Up

I do see McNeil as a first-round prospect heading into the season. But due to the uncertainty around how much playing time he’ll get as a freshman, what his role will be, and some of the question marks in his game, I’d conservatively rank him in the 23-30 range for now. 

But if things start to click for him, if the shot is falling, and he’s also getting paint touches fairly easily, developing well, and getting playing time, don’t be surprised if he flies up draft boards (again, the mainstream boards don’t have him getting drafted at all right now) into the top 20. 

Almost every year, there’s a freshman who (going into the season) nobody thought was going to be a 1st round pick. Still, they end up going in the 1st round – sometimes in the top 10—Taylor Hendricks, Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, Brice Sensabaugh, Malaki Branham, etc. Gun to my head, if I had to pick someone for the 2025 draft class, it would be McNeil.

I’ll certainly have my eye on his progress this season. Either way, I do think that he’s the most underrated freshman prospect heading into the 24-25 college basketball season.