By: @onballcreator
With the college basketball season tipping off soon, let’s take a look at who could be the top picks and which teams might be drafting them.
For this mock, we’ll just do the top 10 picks. That way, we can discuss each pick in greater depth. And because if we went much further than the top 10 picks, it becomes tricky to predict which teams will draft in which spot – and what their team needs will be in the draft that is over eight months away.
For the draft order it’s roughly what we predict the order will be, based on how good (or bad) we think the teams will be this season.
Without any further ado…
- Brooklyn Nets – Cooper Flagg
6’9” – SF/PF – Duke University
No surprise here. Pretty much everybody has Flagg as the No. 1 pick and for good reason. He was the best player on the best high school team in the world last season (that went undefeated).
He’s got size, athleticism, and a very high motor. He plays with a toughness and competitive edge.
It looks like a near certainty that he’ll be an all-NBA level defender. That might be underselling his defense. The potential is there to possibly be a DPOY winner – or at least a DPOY candidate.
Flagg is also very young – he won’t turn 18 till December.
The Nets taking him here is a no-brainer. They desperately need more top end talent and desperately need someone who can be the guy they are building around for the future. At this point, Flagg appears to be in a tier of his own at the top of this draft class.
Here is a clip that shows Flagg impressing vs Team USA this summer, ahead of the Olympics:
2) Washington Wizards – Dylan Harper
6’6” – Combo-Guard – Rutgers University
After watching some more film, I have Harper ranked in his own tier, below Flagg, but ahead of the rest of the players in the class. Some of the film I watched was the recent Rutgers intrasquad scrimmage where Harper appears to be fully recovered from offseason knee surgery. He was not only moving great in the scrimmage but he made a number of high level plays as well – he’s a stud.
After watching some more film, I also think that Harper is a better defender than people think. He’s very solid on that end.
Offensively, I like how Harper is exceptional at carving out space, getting to his spots off the dribble, pressuring the rim and drawing fouls. The outside jumper is good (not great) but will keep getting better.
I like the fit with Washington. These past couple of drafts, they Wizards have gone for more defensive minded players in Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly. I like the way Harper complements their young core, by giving them a guy who could be a legit offensive engine.
In the backcourt, Harper should fit well next to Jordan Poole. Poole is not a good defender so you need the other guard next to him to be a good defender – which Harper is.
Offensively, I’m not too worried about who would play the 1 and who would play the 2 between Harper and Poole. Bottom line, the talent is too good to pass up on with Harper. And since Harper is so versatile (can play the 1 or the 2 offensively, he can be a primary initiator or a secondary ball handler, he can be a facilitator or a scorer) he could fit next to pretty much any guard in the league.
Plus, we don’t know how much longer Poole will be there anyways.
3) Chicago Bulls – VJ Edgecombe
6’5” – SG – Baylor University
On my personal big board, I do have Nolan Traore in the 3 spot. But it’s very close. VJ is right behind him – and I think VJ is a better fit for Chicago so I went with him here.
I’m not wild about the fit of Traore in Chicago. I just think there’s a bit too much overlap between him and Josh Giddey. Both are PG’s, both need the ball in their hands, both need to be the lead ball handler and the primary facilitator of the offense. Neither player is a good shooter or elite defender. I wouldn’t want both of them as part of the same team’s young core.
Really the only other guy I would take in the top 3 at this point is Edgecombe. He’s got the best athleticism of any player in this draft class. VJ is a good defender, good shooter and gives you pretty good secondary playmaking. His processing/decision making/is decent enough.
He does have to work on his handle, his “bag” to create his shot and ability to hit 3’s off the dribble. Also his touch when finishing in the paint can often be poor so he’s gotta work on that as well. Edgecombe has to keep getting stronger as well.
I know that might seem like a lot to work on, but he’s got a whole year at Baylor coming up. I think by the time June gets here, there’s a good chance that we will still be talking about him as a top 3 or 4 pick.
And the fit in Chicago is pretty good. Edgecombe would play the 3 with Giddey at the 1 and Coby White at the 2 (assuming Lavine gets traded at some point and until then, Edgecombe could come off the bench). Not the ideal fit to have Edgecombe at the 3, but at least Giddey is a jumbo sized PG so overall they wouldn’t be that small.
The potential is there for Edgecombe to end up (long term) being better than anyone who’s currently on the Bulls roster. Giddey/White/Edgecombe/Buzelis is a decent young core, where the pieces fit fairly well.
4) Portland Trailblazers – Ace Bailey
6’9” – Wing – Rutgers University
With this pick, I was thinking either Bailey, Traore, Saraf or Jakucionas. Ironically, I currently have Bailey ranked last among that group on my personal big board. However, they’re all in the same tier with very little separation among them. And I think that the fit in Portland is much better for Bailey, compared to those other three guards.
Traore and Jakucionas both really need to be the primary PG, the primary facilitator to succeed. That won’t happen in Portland, with Scoot Henderson. Saraf could maybe fit next to Scoot, but I don’t love the fact that neither is a very good shooter.
With Bailey though, the fit makes total sense. For a young core, you could have Scoot (PG), Sharpe (a wing who’s more SG sized), Bailey (a wing who’s more SF or even PF sized once his frame fills out) and Clingan (a pure C).
Sure, they also have Deni Avdija. But I think there will be enough minutes to go around.
I also think that Portland right now is lacking a true no. 1 option (or even a true no. 2 option) type of scorer. Bailey has the potential to be that guy. If he develops the way he can, he could end up being a 20+ PPG scorer.
Bailey is kind of a high risk/high reward pick. But Portland is rebuilding. The team and their fanbase knows that this rebuild will take some time. They can afford to swing on a guy like Bailey here. If he hits, it could be big.
5) Utah Jazz – Nolan Traore
6’4.5” – PG – Duke University
Traore in my opinion is the best player available in this spot. I currently have him ranked firmly ahead of Saraf and Jakucionas. It’s not a huge gap, but it is a gap.
I like the fit with Utah. The Jazz are lacking a true PG to build around. I see Keyonte George as more of a 2 and I am not very high on Isaiah Collier. Unless he really pops, I think realistically Collier is a guy you hope can contribute off the bench.
So the question remains, who’s their PG of the future? I think it can be Traore. His ceiling is very high – especially for a guy who you’re grabbing here with the 5th pick. The long term potential for Traore is a guy who can get you 20 points and 10 assists on any given night. His ceiling as a scorer is high and his ceiling as a facilitator/playmaker and pick n roll operator is high as well.
His defensive potential is solid as well.
His potential is to be an all-star (I know I’m saying potential a lot) but to get a guy like that at pick 5 is good value.
Utah is in a spot as a franchise where they’re very young, they’re rebuilding. This will take a long time to rebuild. I think you grab Traore here as a guy who is very young but has a high ceiling. He could even lead the Jazz to their first ever title one day.
6) Detroit Pistons – Kasparas Jakucionis
6’5.5” – Combo Guard – University of Illinois
In this spot, I thought about either Jakucionas, Saraf or Tre Johnson. But I figure that it would be hard for Johnson to get enough minutes to develop with all of those other 2’s and 3’s there (Ivey, Thompson, Holland and that’s just for young core pieces).
I went with Jakucionas over Saraf, because Detroit over the past few years always seems to be lacking shooting – I like Jakucionas’ potential as a shooter more than Saraf’s.
Also, Cade Cunningham has shown at the NBA level that he’s a good scorer but his playmaking hasn’t popped as much. I think Jakucionas is better than Saraf in terms of playmaking, running pick and roll, being a distributor of the ball, etc.
Cunningham and Jakucionas have the potential to be a really good back court duo – especially offensively.
Jakucionas has a pretty high ceiling – if he really hits he could be similar to Jason Kidd and Deron Williams (or at least a poor man’s version of them) with perhaps better shooting. Detroit is a team that has been at the bottom of the league for a few years now. They need talent and they need guys with high ceilings because if enough of these high ceiling guys (Holland, Ivey, Thompson, etc.) pop, then they’ve got a chance to finally turn their franchise around and get back to the playoffs.
A guy with that type of ceiling at pick 6 is good value.
7) Toronto Raptors – Ben Saraf
6’6” – Combo Guard – Ratiopharm ULM
This was a fairly easy decision to pick Saraf here. Really the only other guys I would consider here are Zikarsky and Tre Johnson. But the bottom line is I see Saraf as not only the BPA (Best Player Available) in this spot but also a better fit than Zikarsky and Johnson.
Johnson isn’t a good fit. There’s way too much overlap with him and the guy Toronto just used a high draft pick on – Ja’Kobe Walter. And the year before that their lottery pick was also a sharpshooting wing who’s limited in other areas – Grady Dick.
As for Zikarsky, I see him as kind of a reach this high. I see a bit of a dropoff after the top 7 prospects on my big board, and Saraf is the last of the top 7 who is still on the board here.
I like the fit with Saraf and Immanuel Quickley in the back court. Quickley is kind of undersized and not great defensively. Saraf is 6’6” (good size for a guard) and is a good defender (was especially impressive on D at this past summer’s U18 FIBA tournament, where he won MVP).
Quickley is also more of a scorer and a bit limited as a playmaker. Saraf though is a very good playmaker so again, it’s a good fit.
You look at this Raptors team. You’ve got Scottie Barnes who is basically an all-star and still young, still getting better. But Barnes needs help. This team needs more top end talent to go with Barnes. Quickley and RJ Barrett are solid supporting role players – but neither is likely to make an all-star team or even come close to it.
Saraf gives them another guy with star upside. It’s a no-brainer pick to me.
8) Charlotte Hornets – Rocco Zikarsky
7’2.5” – C – Brisbane Bullets
With this pick, I was thinking of either Zikarsky or Tre Johnson. Both are in the same tier on my big board and are pretty close in terms of how good of a prospect they are.
It comes down to fit. The fit isn’t great for either of these guys in Charlotte – but it’s not terrible either.
You could (long term) slide Johnson at the 2, with Lamelo Ball at the 1 and Brandon Miller at the 3. I like that fit offensively, but I strongly dislike with that fit defensively. Lamelo is a poor defender. Miller and Johnson aren’t great defensively and they both project to be average at best defensively.
Charles Lee seems to really be emphasizing defense in Charlotte and trying to build a culture around hard work, hustle and defense. Because of that, I don’t love the fit of Tre Johnson there – especially playing alongside Ball and Miller. And it’s not like any of their other guys (Mark Williams, Grant Williams, Tidjane Salaun, Miles Bridges) are elite defenders either.
Zikarsky, on the other hand, is a better fit. He’s all about defense. He would give the Hornets a guy who could be a legit defensive anchor, a potential all-NBA caliber defender at center.
Sure, they already have Mark Williams. But Williams has battled injuries, he’s injured again right now. And do we really think Mark Williams could end up being a top 10 center in the league? Probably not. Zikarsky, though, does have that potential. So he’s solid value in the 8 spot of the draft.
You could draft Zikarsky, bring him off the bench at first to ease him in. Then when he’s ready to start, you can move Williams to the bench. Or trade Williams and keep Nick Richards on as the backup center.
9) San Antonio Spurs – Tre Johnson
6’6” – Wing – University of Texas
This one is also a pretty easy choice, in my opinion. Johnson is the BPA on my big board, while also being the best fit.
Really the only other guy I was thinking about going with here was Asa Newell. Newell could be a good fit as a solid complementary 4 man, next to Wemby at the 5 (who could also play the 5 at times when Wemby is off the floor). But that’s pretty much what they drafted Jeremy Sochan to be. And even though it seems like long term Sochan’s best role might be energy/defensive guy off the bench, he’s still very young with only two seasons under his belt in the league so I think there’s still a chance he ends up being their starting 4 man. And they drafted him in the top 10, so perhaps he makes a leap this season and then drafting Newell wouldn’t make as much sense. However, the thing that the Spurs definitely need is more shooting. I thought the 2 things they needed heading into the 2024 draft (where they were going to have picks 4 and 8) were a PG and a wing and at least one of them had to be a good shooter. But they ended up trading the 8th pick and only drafting Stephon Castle, a PG with significant questions about his shooting.
So now the Spurs young core is basically Wemby (he can shoot but hasn’t done it very efficiently yet), Castle (shooting concerns), Sochan (shooting concerns) and Devin Vassell (good shooter). Clearly, the next piece they add to their young core should be a good shooter.
Well, Tre Johnson is arguably the best shooter in this entire incoming freshman class. He can absolutely shoot. I like the fit with Castle at the 1 and Johnson at the 2. Castle is a really good defender (could end up being elite defensively) so you don’t need a great defender at the 2. But what you do need is a good shooter, since Castle is not a good shooter. So it’s a good fit, with Johnson being a very good shooter but projects as an average (at best) defender. Johnson isn’t as good at driving, pressuring the rim but Castle is good at that. Both are pretty good playmakers. Both with good size.
The other reason why I like the fit with Johnson on the Spurs, is because you look at that young core for the Spurs and they are missing a no. 2 scoring option, next to Wemby. Sochan and Castle are more defensive guys who are limited as scorers. Vassell realistically is a guy who could be a 4th (or at best, 3rd) option on a playoff team.
Plus, Wemby has to also anchor the team’s defense – he was a DPOY candidate as a rookie. He shouldn’t have to also carry a ton of the scoring load on offense. It;s obviously not a guarantee but Tre Johnson has upside to possibly end up being a 20+ PPG scorer eventually in the NBA. If he hits his ceiling, he’s a 6’6” version of Bradley Beal. That’s a deadly weapon next to Wemby.
10) Los Angeles Clippers – Asa Newell
6’10” – PF/C – University of Georgia
For this pick, I really was only considering Newell or Will Riley. Honestly, I think Riley has a higher ceiling. If Riley hits, his combination of youth + being 6’8.5” + shooting + handle/shot creation + playmaking could eventually make him a legit star in this league. You think about some other recent prospects who had that combination of traits and you might think about Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton and LaMelo Ball.
On one hand, it seems crazy to pass up on a guy like that this late in the draft for a guy (Newell) who likely projects as a really good role player.
However, I think that we have to always factor in floor as well as ceiling. We have to factor in risk – like what if you take Riley at pick 10 and he ends up being more like a Cam Reddish/Ziaire Williams/Patrick Baldwin Jr type of guy? Then you’re screwed.
I like Riley as a prospect – he’s currently 11th on my big board. While the upside/potential is there (as I described above), a lot of it is theoretical. Before moving him up too high on my board, I want to see him produce vs elite competition. He was quiet in the Nike Hoop Summit game. He had some big games this past spring in AAU/EYBL, but that was against kids who are playing high school ball this upcoming season. Some of the games he played for his prep school team last season he was very good but in other games he was less impressive.
I’m also not sure how well he will do this season in a tough physical Big 10 conference, given his skinny physique – he had issues at times dealing with physicality at the HS level last season.
So in my opinion, Newell is the BPA at this spot. I also like the fit of Newell on the Clippers. Ivica Zubac is locked up on a long term contract extension, but Newell gives them a guy who could play at the 4 next to Zubac (Newell’s ideal position is the 4..he can switch pretty well defensively and I think he can shoot it sufficiently as well).
Newell and Zubac could be a nice pairing at the 4 and 5 spots. Plus, Newell could slide over to the 5 when Zubac is off the floor.
It seems like the Clippers haven’t had a legit 4 man with good size in awhile (they’ve mostly been going with small-ish 4’s like Leonard, George, Morris, Batum and Covington) so this would be a nice change for them.
I realized I’m a bit higher on Newell right now than the consensus so here’s why. As I mentioned, his ceiling is probably not super high. He’s likely going to be a really good role player, at best. But I think that’s okay at this point in the draft. The studs, the stars, the franchise cornerstones are typically going higher in the draft than pick 10 – at least in this draft class.
Once you get to around the 8-10 range, it’s totally fine to grab a player who you really like as a really good role player. A guy with high feel, high IQ, a guy who’s a winner (played a major role on the best HS team in the world last season, which went undefeated at Montverde), a guy who seemingly always makes the right basketball play. A glue guy who’s unselfish, has good size, good athleticism, pretty good strength.
Newell can rebound, pass, defend. He can shoot it pretty well. He can defend the perimeter, while also protecting the rim fairly well. And he can even put the ball on the floor, as we see here:
To some extent, he’s a jack of all trades, master of none type of player. But that’s why he’s not going in the top 9 picks. 10th I think is a good spot for Newell.
He also is a guy who has basically no weaknesses as a prospect. And is silk pretty young (is still just 18 years old) and has a full season of college basketball ahead of him, so there’s a good chance he could take a leap in at least one of these areas and then this pick would look even better.
Wrapping It Up
So there you have it. Roughly predicting the order of the top 10 picks and putting my GM hat on to pick who I would draft in each of the top 10 picks, with the information we have today but projecting what could happen this upcoming season.
I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it.
One thing that I’ll add in closing, is that you can kind of tell at this point what my draft philosophy is like, to some extent. By that I mean, the higher up in the draft, the heavier I lean towards BPA over fit/need. You don’t want to miss out on a superstar talent by drafting a player at a position you have a greater need for (like for example how the Kings and Suns missed out on drafting Luka Doncic).
However, the deeper you get into the draft, there’s less of that superstar (or even star) level talent available. And, you start getting into parts of the draft where there’s less separation between players within a tier. So a team could be on the clock and the BPA could be 2 or 3 different guys (or even 4) and if all those guys are pretty close in terms of how good of a prospect they are, then it makes sense to factor in fit/need a little more.
Lastly, it’s very early. The college basketball season has not even tipped off yet. Things could change quite a bit with my big board and where I would draft certain prospects. Things also could change with which teams are drafting where in the top 10 and what their team needs are.
It’ll be fun to track those changes through the upcoming season. Stay tuned for more content!
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