In August 2018, my friend Scott Levine and I recorded a podcast on our Top 30 Players for the upcoming season. Little did we know at the time, but it’s become a yearly tradition for us ahead of every NBA campaign. We’ve made lists for 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2023-24, and the 2024-25 season. Seven years of doing the same process leads to some interesting revelations. I would like to look back on each list and see what we got right, what we got wrong, and what if any, lessons are to be learned. We’ll also examine the All-NBA teams and individual playoff performances to examine where our biases might lie.

There are a couple of caveats before we get to the first list. Scott and I decided that injured players who would be out for the vast majority, if not all of the season, were not eligible to be included (i.e., Kevin Durant was excluded from the 2019-20 list due to his recovery from the torn achilles). Our lists are always projection-based. So, it’s not simply listing the best players from the previous campaign. We try to predict, as best as we can, for both player progression and regression. Lastly, ranking players is always going to have some level of subjectivity. How much do you value the eye test? How much do you value traditional and advanced statistics? How do you weigh regular season versus postseason production? And how do you weigh offensive versus defensive contributions? Now, let’s get to it!

Our lists for the 2018-19 Season:

#	Garrett’s List	Scott’s List
1	LeBron James	LeBron James
2	Stephen Curry	Kevin Durant
3	Kawhi Leonard	Kawhi Leonard
4	Kevin Durant	Steph Curry
5	James Harden	James Harden
6	Chris Paul	Chris Paul
7	Anthony Davis	Anthony Davis
8	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Kyrie Irving
9	Victor Oladipo	Russell Westbrook
10	Russell Westbrook	Giannis Antetokounmpo
11	Jimmy Butler	Draymond Green
12	Paul George	Jimmy Butler
13	Kyrie Irving	Joel Embiid
14	Joel Embiid	Jrue Holiday
15	Draymond Green	Damian Lillard

16	Rudy Gobert	Klay Thompson
17	LaMarcus Aldridge	Rudy Gobert
18	Karl Anthony-Towns	Victor Oladipo
19	Al Horford	Gordon Hayward
20	Nikola Jokic	Paul George
21	Klay Thompson	Kemba Walker
22	Jrue Holiday	Al Horford
23	Damian Lillard	Kyle Lowry
24	Kyle Lowry	Nikola Jokic
25	Bradley Beal	Paul Millsap
26	Gordon Hayward	John Wall
27	Ben Simmons	Mike Conley
28	Kevin Love	Kristaps Porzingis
29	Paul Millsap	Karl Anthony-Towns
30	Khris Middleton	Khris Middleton

All NBA First Team:

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F: Paul George

C: Nikola Jokic

G: Steph Curry

G: James Harden

I have to say I did quite well when it came to the First Team:

Giannis (MVP): Ranked 8th for me, 10th for Scott

George: Ranked 12th for me, 20th for Scott

Jokic: Ranked 20th for me, 24th for Scott

Curry: Ranked 2nd for me, 4th for Scott

Harden: Ranked 5th for me, also 5th for Scott

All NBA Second Team:

F: Kevin Durant

F: Kawhi Leonard

C: Joel Embiid

G: Damian Lillard

G: Kyrie Irving

Scott nailed the Second Team selections:

KD: Ranked 4th for me, 2nd for Scott

Kawhi (FMVP): Ranked 3rd for me, also 3rd for Scott

C: Embiid: Ranked 14th for me, 13th for Scott

G: Lillard: Ranked 23rd for me, 15th for Scott

G: Irving: Ranked 13th for me, 8th for Scott

Lillard is the one here that bugs me the most. I overreacted to his previous playoff performance. The Blazers got swept by the Pelicans in the first round, and Lillard was completely shut down. He shot 35.2% from the field and had a 1.2/1 assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. Scott adequately sussed out that the main culprits for his struggles were Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis. 

All NBA Third Team:

F: Blake Griffin

F: LeBron James

C: Rudy Gobert

G: Russell Westbrook

G: Kemba Walker

Griffin: NA for me, NA for Scott

LeBron: 1st for me, 1st for Scott

Gobert: 16th for me, 17th for Scott

Westbrook: 10th for me, 9th for Scott

Walker: NA for me, 21st for Scott

We both missed Blake Griffin. Griffin was hard to predict, given he hadn’t made the all-star team in any of the previous three seasons. At the time, it felt like his injury issues were slowly sapping his athleticism. That ultimately came to fruition, just not until after the 18-19 regular season had concluded. 

Scott included 14 of the 15 All-NBA selections into his top 30. I included 13 of 15, with the only other absence for me being Kemba Walker.

Our lists for the 2019-20 Season:

#	Garrett’s List	Scott’s List
1	Steph Curry	LeBron James
2	Kawhi Leonard	Giannis Antetokounmpo
3	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Steph Curry
4	LeBron James	Kawhi Leonard
5	James Harden	Anthony Davis
6	Anthony Davis	James Harden
7	Nikola Jokic	Nikola Jokic
8	Paul George	Joel Embiid
9	Joel Embiid	Damian Lillard
10	Jimmy Butler	Paul George
11	Kyrie Irving	Kyrie Irving
12	Damian Lillard	Karl Anthony-Towns
13	Karl Anthony-Towns	Jimmy Butler
14	Draymond Green	Draymond Green
15	Rudy Gobert	Blake Griffin

16	Jrue Holiday	Jrue Holiday
17	Kyle Lowry	Kyle Lowry
18	LaMarcus Aldridge	Kemba Walker
19	Victor Oladipo	Rudy Gobert
20	Blake Griffin	Victor Oladipo
21	Al Horford	Pascal Siakam
22	Chris Paul	Ben Simmons
23	Mike Conley	Mike Conley
24	Bradley Beal	Chris Paul
25	Kemba Walker	Zion Williamson
26	Pascal Siakam	Bradley Beal
27	Marc Gasol	Al Horford
28	Ben Simmons	Luka Doncic
29	Brook Lopez	Nikola Vucevic
30	Luka Doncic	LaMarcus Aldridge

All NBA First Team:

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F: LeBron James

C: Anthony Davis

G: James Harden

G: Luka Doncic

Giannis (MVP): 3rd for me, 2nd for Scott

LeBron (FMVP): 4th for me, 1st for Scott

AD: 6th for me, 5th for Scott

Harden: 5th for me, 6th for Scott

Luka: 30th for me, 28th for Scott

Whew! We both almost missed out on an All-NBA First Team selection in Doncic. He had won Rookie of the Year in the previous campaign, and both of us were high on his potential, but neither of us anticipated the quantum leap he would take from year 1 to 2. Also, you have to credit Scott for not overreacting to LeBron’s injury-riddled first season in Los Angeles. I thought this might be the first sign of the King’s descent, but his first season with Davis was capped off in style with his 4th NBA Championship in the bubble and his 4th Finals MVP Trophy. Scott having LBJ #1 and AD #5 before the season looks even better in hindsight.

All NBA Second Team:

F: Kawhi Leonard

F: Pascal Siakam

C: Nikola Jokic

G: Damian Lillard

G: Chris Paul

Kawhi: 2nd for me, 4th for Scott

Pascal: 26th for me, 21st for Scott

Jokic: 7th for me, 7th for Scott

Lillard: 12th for me, 9th for Scott

Paul: 22nd for me, 24th for Scott

We both did really well with the second-team selections. We both overreacted to CP3’s last season in Houston. Given his age, I thought it was a possibility that the Point God was slowing down. But he returned with a vengeance in Oklahoma City and would continue to be an All-NBA level player for another couple of seasons.

All NBA Third Team:

F: Jayson Tatum

F: Jimmy Butler

C: Rudy Gobert

G: Ben Simmons

G: Russell Westbrook

Tatum: NA for me, NA for Scott

Butler: 10th for me, 13th for Scott

Gobert: 15th for me, 19th for Scott

Simmons: 28th for me, 22nd for Scott

Westbrook: NA for me, NA for Scott

Tatum made a surprising and substantial leap in his third season. Players that young often make massive improvements, but it’s also incredibly hard to forecast. With Tatum, the leap was expected in year two after winning Rookie of the Year and playing well in the postseason in his first taste of playoff basketball. But the year two leap didn’t happen. That’s why you often hear scouts/analysts say that improvement isn’t always linear. I don’t plan on betting on Most Improved Player anytime soon. 

While Russell Westbrook made the All-NBA Third Team, I don’t feel I made a mistake leaving him off my list. Not only was his impact negligible compared to his counting stats, but his team, the Houston Rockets, had to trade away their center to help mitigate Westbrook’s weaknesses. The playoffs didn’t go well for Russ either – – and this was the beginning of the end of Westbrook being considered an elite player. 

We both got 13 of the 15 All-NBA selections.

Our lists for the 2020-21 Season:

#	Garrett’s List	Scott’s List
1	LeBron James	LeBron James
2	Kawhi Leonard	Giannis Antetokounmpo
3	Luka Doncic	Kawhi Leonard
4	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Luka Doncic
5	Nikola Jokic	Anthony Davis
6	Anthony Davis	Steph Curry
7	Steph Curry	James Harden
8	James Harden	Nikola Jokic
9	Joel Embiid	Damian Lillard
10	Damian Lillard	Joel Embiid
11	Jimmy Butler	Kevin Durant
12	Paul George	Jimmy Butler
13	Kevin Durant	Jayson Tatum
14	Rudy Gobert	Devin Booker
15	Jayson Tatum	Rudy Gobert

16	Devin Booker	Bam Adebayo
17	Chris Paul	Bradley Beal
18	Bam Adebayo	Chris Paul
19	Kyle Lowry	Ben Simmons
20	Kyrie Irving	Paul George
21	Karl Anthony-Towns	Kyrie Irving
22	Khris Middleton	Karl Anthony-Towns
23	Bradley Beal	Jamal Murray
24	Jaylen Brown	Pascal Siakam
25	Jamal Murray	Kyle Lowry
26	Jrue Holiday	Kemba Walker
27	Pascal Siakam	Khris Middleton
28	Ben Simmons	Trae Young
29	Trae Young	Zion Williamson
30	Donovan Mitchell	Domantas Sabonis

All NBA First Team:

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F: Kawhi Leonard

C: Nikola Jokic

G: Steph Curry

G: Luka Doncic

Giannis (FMVP): 4th for me, 2nd for Scott

Kawhi: 2nd for me, 3rd for Scott

Jokic (MVP): 5th for me, 8th for Scott

Curry: 7th for me, 6th for Scott

Doncic: 3rd for me, 4th for Scott

I don’t have too much to say here. I was a little higher on the regular season MVP, and Scott was higher on the eventual Finals MVP.

All NBA Second Team:

F: Julius Randle

F: LeBron James

C: Joel Embiid

G: Chris Paul

G: Damian Lillard

Randle: NA for me, NA for Scott

LeBron: 1st for me, 1st for Scott

Embiid: 9th for me, 10th for Scott

CP3: 17th for me, 18th for Scott

Lillard: 10th for me, 9th for Scott

Neither of us had Randle. And frankly, this is one of the more fluky All-NBA selections in recent memory. Randle hit 41% of his threes in the 2020-21 season and has never managed to hit better than 34% in any other campaign. We were pretty much in lockstep with every other one of the Second Team guys.

All NBA Third Team:

F: Jimmy Butler

F: Paul George

C: Rudy Gobert

G: Bradley Beal

G: Kyrie Irving

Butler: 11th for me, 12th for Scott

George: 12th for me, 20th for Scott

Gobert: 14th for me, 15th for Scott

Beal: 23rd for me, 18th for Scott

Irving: 20th for me, 21st for Scott

I’ve consistently ranked Paul George higher than Scott in this exercise. PG13 has an average ranking of 12.5 on my list. Scott’s average ranking for George is 17. I think some of that could be George’s injury issues – – I have tended to give him the benefit of the doubt on a lot of those. I also think Scott just prefers a more unselfish brand of on-ball creation. The cool thing about the difference is that I can’t definitively say which one of us is right – – or that there even is a right answer. Perhaps George’s healthy version has been about the 12th-best player in the league over the last seven seasons. Still, the 17th position might be the more accurate assessment when you factor in his durability issues. 

Both of us got 14 of the 15 All-NBA selections.

Our lists for the 2021-22 Season:

#	Garrett’s List	Scott’s List
1	Luka Doncic	Kevin Durant
2	Kevin Durant	Giannis Antetokounmpo
3	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Joel Embiid
4	Steph Curry	LeBron James
5	LeBron James	Steph Curry
6	Nikola Jokic	Nikola Jokic
7	Joel Embiid	James Harden
8	Anthony Davis	Luka Doncic
9	James Harden	Damian Lillard
10	Damian Lillard	Anthony Davis
11	Paul George	Trae Young
12	Jayson Tatum	Zion Williamson
13	Devin Booker	Jimmy Butler
14	Rudy Gobert	Paul George
15	Kyrie Irving	Kyrie Irving

16	Jimmy Butler	Jayson Tatum
17	Chris Paul	Karl Anthony-Towns
18	Trae Young	Rudy Gobert
19	Zion Williamson	Bradley Beal
20	Bam Adebayo	Devin Booker
21	Khris Middleton	Bam Adebayo
22	Donovan Mitchell	Khris Middleton
23	Karl Anthony-Towns	Draymond Green
24	Bradley Beal	Chris Paul
25	Jaylen Brown	Kyle Lowry
26	Kyle Lowry	Donovan Mitchell
27	Jrue Holiday	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
28	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Zach LaVine
29	Pascal Siakam	Jaylen Brown
30	Draymond Green	Brandon Ingram

All NBA First Team: 

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F: Jayson Tatum

C: Nikola Jokic

G: Devin Booker

G: Luka Doncic

Giannis: 3rd for me, 2nd for Scott

Tatum: 12th for me, 16th for Scott

Jokic (MVP): 6th for me, 6th for Scott

Booker: 13th for me, 20th for Scott

Doncic: 1st for me, 8th for Scott

I’ll take my victory lap on this one. I had Booker, Tatum, and Doncic all significantly higher than Scott. I will say that neither of us was proactive enough, given we ranked Jokic outside the top 5 despite him being the reigning MVP. There were still questions about his playoff defense, but he was already in the top tier in offensive impact along with Stephen Curry.

All NBA Second Team:

F: DeMar DeRozan

F: Kevin Durant

C: Joel Embiid

G: Ja Morant

G: Steph Curry

DeRozan: NA for me, NA for Scott

Durant: 2nd for me, 1st for Scott

Embiid: 7th for me, 3rd for Scott

Morant: NA for me, NA for Scott

Curry (FMVP): 4th for me, 5th for Scott

Wow – – both of us missing TWO Second Team selections hurts. With Morant, it’s another case of it being hard to identify the Most Improved candidates. Both of us believed in Ja’s talent. It was more a matter of when than if. He just happened to level up a little bit sooner than anticipated. 

With DeRozan, it was a similar case as what we missed with Blake Griffin – – an all-star caliber player getting to play in a different context. Going from San Antonio to Chicago, his usage shot up 5.7%, leading to a career-high 27.9 points per game. 

All NBA Third Team:

F: Pascal Siakam

F: LeBron James

C: Karl Anthony-Towns

G: Chris Paul

G: Trae Young

Siakam: 29th for me, NA for Scott

LeBron: 5th for me, 4th for Scott

KAT: 23rd for me, 15th for Scott

CP3: 17th for me, 24th for Scott

Trae: 18th for me, 11th for Scott

I was down one to Scott in these All-NBA picks after missing on Kemba Walker in 2018-19, but I’ve finally tied things up by being the only one to have Siakam on the 2021-22 list! Pascal was coming off a very tough postseason performance in the bubble and then a lost year in Tampa when the Raptors were forced to play there to avoid COVID-19 border challenges that would result from being in Canada. This was a situation where I believed in my evaluation and didn’t overreact to what would be described as the lowest point in Siakam’s tenure with the Raptors. 

Scott looks like a certified genius putting Trae Young at 11. Most people, including me, would have suggested that was a bit too optimistic. But he had his best season to date and became an unstoppable offensive force. He shot a career-high 38.2% from three on eight attempts per game. I’m a little worried that his playoff run in 2021 and the subsequent regular season might’ve been his career peak, but if it was, Scott saw it and accurately assessed its value. He even convinced me to move Trae up on my list from 23 to 18, which makes me look better, but I feel obligated to give him credit for creating a compelling case. 

13/15 All NBA selections for me, 12/15 for Scott. 

You may have noticed we missed the 2022-23 season. That was due to employment I had at the time as a Video Scout with Sports Info Solutions. I was not permitted to express any public basketball opinions for the duration of my contract. So we missed making lists for the season in which Joel Embiid won regular season MVP, and Nikola Jokic won his first ring and Finals MVP.

Our lists for the 2023-24 Season:

#	Garrett’s List	Scott’s List
1	Nikola Jokic	Nikola Jokic
2	Steph Curry	Steph Curry
3	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Giannis Antetokounmpo
4	Kawhi Leonard	Joel Embiid
5	Luka Doncic	Luka Doncic
6	Joel Embiid	Kevin Durant
7	Kevin Durant	Jayson Tatum
8	Anthony Davis	Devin Booker
9	Jayson Tatum	LeBron James
10	Jimmy Butler	Jimmy Butler
11	Devin Booker	Anthony Davis
12	Damian Lillard	Kawhi Leonard
13	LeBron James	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
14	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Damian Lillard
15	Paul George	Donovan Mitchell

16	Jamal Murray	Ja Morant
17	Donovan Mitchell	Brandon Ingram
18	Bam Adebayo	Anthony Edwards
19	Tyrese Haliburton	Pascal Siakam
20	Kyrie Irving	De’Aaron Fox
21	Trae Young	Jalen Brunson
22	Ja Morant	Trae Young
23	Jalen Brunson	DeMar DeRozan
24	Darius Garland	Paul George
25	Anthony Edwards	Jamal Murray
26	James Harden	Jaylen Brown
27	Jaren Jackson Jr.	Karl Anthony-Towns
28	Brook Lopez	Tyrese Haliburton
29	Mikal Bridges	Darius Garland
30	Brandon Ingram	Bam Adebayo

All NBA First Team (First Year Without Positional Designations):

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Luka Doncic

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Nikola Jokic

Jayson Tatum

Giannis: 3rd for me, 3rd for Scott

Luka: 5th for me, 5th for Scott

SGA: 14th for me, 13th for Scott

Jokic (MVP): 1st for me, 1st for Scott

Tatum: 9th for me, 7th for Scott

We’re pretty much on the same page here, and we both did reasonably well. Based on our rankings, everybody who ultimately made the First Team was a player that we considered to be of All-NBA caliber (ranked in the top 15).

All NBA Second Team:

Jalen Brunson

Anthony Davis

Kevin Durant

Anthony Edwards

Kawhi Leonard

Brunson: 23rd for me, 21st for Scott

AD: 8th for me, 11th for Scott

KD: 7th for me, 6th for Scott

Ant: 25th for me, 18th for Scott

Kawhi: 4th for me, 12th for Scott

I would argue Scott was more on the money with these selections. Edwards at 18 was a bold stance to take, and ultimately, it was the correct one. I would also say that despite Kawhi making Second Team All NBA, the playoffs matter in these rankings as well, and his continued inability to be healthy when it matters has to play a role in where he’s placed. I was probably a year too late recognizing that and adjusting accordingly.

Third Team All NBA:

Devin Booker

Stephen Curry

Tyrese Haliburton

LeBron James

Domantas Sabonis

Booker: 11th for me, 8th for Scott

Curry: 2nd for me, 2nd for Scott

Haliburton: 19th for me, 28th for Scott

LBJ: 13th for me, 9th for Scott

Sabonis: NA for me, NA for Scott

I gave credit to Scott for Edwards, so I have to give myself a pat on the back for my Tyrese prediction. I believed in his playmaking, shotmaking, and unselfish style. Prior to his hamstring injury on January 8th, he was a borderline top-10 player in the league. 

We each have obvious regrets about this list. I put Jamal Murray at 16. I overreacted to Murray’s playoff performance and assumed a regular-season jump was coming. I assumed this despite his regular season resume being consistently subpar compared to his heights in the 20 and 23 playoff runs. He was a top 15-level player in the Nuggets’ postseason run to the title. Still, when you factor in the sub-all-star production he provides in the regular season, he’s realistically, at his peak, somewhere between the 22nd and 28th best player in the league.

Scott put Brandon Ingram at 17 and also admitted regret. Ingram is the type of player who has shown continual improvement as a passer and is a quality shot-maker. But his inability to fit in an off-ball role really became evident this past season; that, combined with his defensive deficiencies, would lead one to believe he’s probably more in the 31-50 range – – rather than firmly inside the top 30. 

We both got nearly all of the All-NBA selections on our respective lists, but Sabonis’ addition to the 3rd team leaves us both at 14/15 for the 2023-24 season and tied at 67/75 overall. We’ve hit on over 89% of the All-NBA Teams since we’ve been doing this – – that’s pretty good!

Now, before you get to the list for the upcoming 2024-25 season, go check out the podcast we recently recorded! I’ll leave the link below to both Spotify and Apple Podcasts. 

Otherwise, spoilers ahead!

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dunkin-dynasty/id1300718118?i=1000669076816

Our Lists for the 2024-25 Season:

#	Garrett’s List	Scott’s List
1	Nikola Jokic	Nikola Jokic
2	Joel Embiid	Luka Doncic
3	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Giannis Antetokounmpo
4	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Joel Embiid
5	Luka Doncic	Steph Curry
6	Anthony Davis	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
7	LeBron James	Anthony Davis
8	Steph Curry	Kevin Durant
9	Victor Wembenyama	Jayson Tatum
10	Jayson Tatum	LeBron James
11	Devin Booker	Victor Wembenyama
12	Kevin Durant	Anthony Edwards
13	Kawhi Leonard	Donovan Mitchell
14	Jalen Brunson	Kawhi Leonard
15	Tyrese Haliburton	Devin Booker

16	Anthony Edwards	Jalen Brunson
17	Paul George	Paul George
18	Donovan Mitchell	Kyrie Irving
19	Jimmy Butler	Trae Young
20	Bam Adebayo	Damian Lillard
21	Damian Lillard	Ja Morant
22	Rudy Gobert	Zion Williamson
23	Ja Morant	Jaylen Brown
24	Lauri Markkanen	Tyrese Haliburton
25	Jaylen Brown	Tyrese Maxey
26	Zion Williamson	Jimmy Butler
27	Kristaps Porzingis	Karl Anthony-Towns
28	Pascal Siakam	Chet Holmgren
29	Tyrese Maxey	Pascal Siakam
30	Jalen Williams	Bam Adebayo

All that’s left to do now is to wait and see how this year’s picks look over the next nine months. One of the main things I feel like I’ve learned over the seven years we’ve been making these lists is to not react to a down year or a bad performance. While it’s possible it means a player is washed, we’ve seen players like LeBron, Butler, and Curry thrive into their mid to late thirties. I have already talked about Chris Paul’s down year in 2018-19, only to bounce back with a vengeance. Rudy Gobert had a miserable year in 2022-23 but immediately regained Defensive Player of the Year form last season.

Over the time we’ve made these lists, I’ve gotten a job as a Basketball Video Scout, explored writing opportunities with RipCityProject, and, most recently, with TheCenterHub. I’ve continued to expand my knowledge of the sport by listening to podcasts and reading books – the most recent one I highly recommend is Mike Prada’s Spaced Out.

These experiences and knowledge have helped me feel more confident in my assessments. It also helps to realize that this is an entirely impossible subject to master. Like with most things in life, it’s about improving a little bit every day, holding yourself accountable, and not beating yourself up over mistakes. You’re going to make them – – just try your best to learn from them.